用自适应模型跨路口精准估车流延误,提升交通管理可靠性。
Network-Level Vehicle Delay Estimation at Heterogeneous Signalized Intersections
- 通过源-目标域分离与特征提取,实现跨路口延迟估计。
- 在57个不同路口测试中,准确率优于8种主流回归模型。
- 适合城市交通管理、信号优化与智能规划人员使用。
精准的车辆延误估计对评估信号交叉口性能和制定交通管理策略至关重要。延误反映拥堵水平,影响出行时间可靠性、油耗与排放。机器学习提供了一种可扩展、低成本的替代方案;然而,传统模型通常假设训练与测试数据分布一致,这一假设在真实场景中极少成立。由于道路几何、信号配时和驾驶行为差异,模型泛化能力差,准确率下降。为此,本研究提出一种领域自适应(DA)框架,用于跨异构交叉口的车辆延误估计。框架将数据分为源域与目标域,提取关键交通特征,并利用目标域少量标注数据进行微调。提出一种新型DA模型——梯度提升平衡加权(GBBW),根据源数据与目标域的相似性重新加权,增强模型适应性。框架基于美国亚利桑那州皮马县57个异构交叉口的数据进行测试,对比了8种先进机器学习回归模型和7种实例级领域自适应方法。结果表明,GBBW框架能提供更准确、更鲁棒的延误估计。该方法有助于提升交通信号优化、拥堵管理与绩效导向规划的可靠性。通过增强模型迁移能力,推动机器学习在实际交通系统中的广泛应用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate vehicle delay estimation is essential for evaluating the performance of signalized intersections and informing traffic management strategies. Delay reflects congestion levels and affects travel time reliability, fuel use, and emissions. Machine learning (ML) offers a scalable, cost-effective alternative; However, conventional models typically assume that training and testing data follow the same distribution, an assumption that is rarely satisfied in real-world applications. Variations in road geometry, signal timing, and driver behavior across intersections often lead to poor generalization and reduced model accuracy. To address this issue, this study introduces a domain adaptation (DA) framework for estimating vehicle delays across diverse intersections. The framework separates data into source and target domains, extracts key traffic features, and fine-tunes the model using a small, labeled subset from the target domain. A novel DA model, Gradient Boosting with Balanced Weighting (GBBW), reweights source data based on similarity to the target domain, improving adaptability. The framework is tested using data from 57 heterogeneous intersections in Pima County, Arizona. Performance is evaluated against eight state-of-the-art ML regression models and seven instance-based DA methods. Results demonstrate that the GBBW framework provides more accurate and robust delay estimates. This approach supports more reliable traffic signal optimization, congestion management, and performance-based planning. By enhancing model transferability, the framework facilitates broader deployment of machine learning techniques in real-world transportation systems.
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