AI交易员比人类更理性，但被引导后也会集体跟风，影响金融稳定。
Financial Stability Implications of Generative AI: Taming the Animal Spirits
- 用大语言模型模拟交易，发现AI更依赖私有信息而非市场趋势
- 当被引导追求利润最大化时，AI会最优地集体跟风，可能加剧系统风险
- AI并非完全算法化，仍继承了部分人类偏见和行为模式
本文研究生成式AI在金融交易中的应用对金融稳定的影响。通过使用大语言模型进行类实验室实验，复现经典市场羊群行为研究。结果显示，与人类相比，AI代理更理性，主要依赖私有信息而非市场趋势。因此，更多采用AI交易建议可能减少由‘动物精神’引发的资产价格泡沫。然而，在不同实验设置中发现，当明确引导AI以利润最大化为目标时，它们可实现最优羊群行为，虽提升市场纪律，但仍存在潜在金融稳定性风险。此外，在其他变体中表明，AI并非纯粹算法化，其行为仍继承了部分人类心理特征与偏差。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper investigates the impact of the adoption of generative AI on financial stability. We conduct laboratory-style experiments using large language models to replicate classic studies on herd behavior in trading decisions. Our results show that AI agents make more rational decisions than humans, relying predominantly on private information over market trends. Increased reliance on AI-powered trading advice could therefore potentially lead to fewer asset price bubbles arising from animal spirits that trade by following the herd. However, exploring variations in the experimental settings reveals that AI agents can be induced to herd optimally when explicitly guided to make profit-maximizing decisions. While optimal herding improves market discipline, this behavior still carries potential implications for financial stability. In other experimental variations, we show that AI agents are not purely algorithmic, but have inherited some elements of human conditioning and bias.
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