arXiv:2510.01874stat.MLcs.LG2025-10被引 1

用AlphaZero解决非凸市场中的对冲难题,比传统方法更优。

Deep Hedging Under Non-Convexity: Limitations and a Case for AlphaZero

  • 将对冲建模为投资者与市场的博弈,用AlphaZero寻找策略
  • 在非凸交易成本下,深度对冲易陷入局部最优,而AlphaZero接近全局最优
  • 适合高复杂度、数据少的金融衍生品对冲场景

本文研究不完备市场中的复制组合构建问题,该问题在金融工程中广泛应用于定价、对冲、资产负债管理及能源存储规划。我们将此建模为投资者与市场之间的双人博弈:投资者对未来的状态做出战略押注,而市场揭示实际结果。受蒙特卡洛树搜索在随机博弈中成功应用的启发,我们提出基于AlphaZero的系统,并将其与广泛使用的基于梯度下降的深度对冲方法进行比较。通过理论分析与实验,我们发现深度对冲在最优动作价值函数不满足凸性约束的环境中表现不佳——如存在非凸交易成本、资本限制或监管约束时,会收敛至局部最优。我们构建了特定市场环境以凸显这些局限性,并证明AlphaZero始终能发现近似最优的复制策略。理论上,我们建立了深度对冲与凸优化之间的联系,表明其有效性依赖于凸性假设。实验进一步表明,AlphaZero具有更高的样本效率,在数据稀缺且易过拟合的衍生品市场中具有显著优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper examines replication portfolio construction in incomplete markets - a key problem in financial engineering with applications in pricing, hedging, balance sheet management, and energy storage planning. We model this as a two-player game between an investor and the market, where the investor makes strategic bets on future states while the market reveals outcomes. Inspired by the success of Monte Carlo Tree Search in stochastic games, we introduce an AlphaZero-based system and compare its performance to deep hedging - a widely used industry method based on gradient descent. Through theoretical analysis and experiments, we show that deep hedging struggles in environments where the optimal action-value function is not subject to convexity constraints - such as those involving non-convex transaction costs, capital constraints, or regulatory limitations - converging to local optima. We construct specific market environments to highlight these limitations and demonstrate that AlphaZero consistently finds near-optimal replication strategies. On the theoretical side, we establish a connection between deep hedging and convex optimization, suggesting that its effectiveness is contingent on convexity assumptions. Our experiments further suggest that AlphaZero is more sample-efficient - an important advantage in data-scarce, overfitting-prone derivative markets.

金融工程强化学习对冲策略AlphaZero

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