用混合模型预测家庭燃气用量,尤其适合数据少的场景。
Hybrid Deep Learning Modeling Approach to Predict Natural Gas Consumption of Home Subscribers on Limited Data
- 结合BiLSTM与XGBoost构建混合模型,提升预测精度。
- 在六年内数据上表现最优,RMSE、MAPE等指标更低。
- 适合燃气管理薄弱地区,对缓解冬季供气紧张有帮助。
天然气作为清洁能源和原油替代品,在全球能源需求中占重要地位。伊朗是能源资源大国,天然气储量居世界第二。但人口增长与能耗上升导致冬季常出现气压下降和断气问题,亟需控制居民用气量(占伊朗总用量最大)。本研究基于2017至2022年六年间扎詹省的燃气与气象数据,采用LSTM、GRU及混合的BiLSTM-XGBoost模型分析并预测居民燃气消耗。结果表明,混合模型在准确率上优于其他模型,具有更低的均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和平均百分比误差(MPE)。该模型在数据有限情况下仍具强鲁棒性。研究强调地理与气候因素对燃气使用的重要影响,验证了机器学习尤其是混合模型在优化资源管理、减少季节性短缺方面的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Today, natural gas, as a clean fuel and the best alternative to crude oil, covers a significant part of global demand. Iran is one of the largest countries with energy resources and in terms of gas is the second-largest country in the world. But, due to the increase in population and energy consumption, it faces problems such as pressure drops and gas outages yearly in cold seasons and therefore it is necessary to control gas consumption, especially in the residential sector, which has the largest share in Iran. This study aims to analyze and predict gas consumption for residential customers in Zanjan province, Iran, using machine learning models, including LSTM, GRU, and a hybrid BiLSTM-XGBoost model. The dataset consists of gas consumption and meteorology data collected over six years, from 2017 to 2022. The models were trained and evaluated based on their ability to accurately predict consumption patterns. The results indicate that the hybrid BiLSTM-XGBoost model outperformed the other models in terms of accuracy, with lower Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values, and Mean Percentage Error (MPE). Additionally, the Hybrid model demonstrated robust performance, particularly in scenarios with limited data. The findings suggest that machine learning approaches, particularly hybrid models, can be effectively utilized to manage and predict gas consumption, contributing to more efficient resource management and reducing seasonal shortages. This study highlights the importance of incorporating geographical and climatic factors in predictive modeling, as these significantly influence gas usage across different regions.
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