arXiv:2510.02407cs.LGcs.AI2025-10

用数据增强提升极端值预测精度,效果优于传统方法。

Extreme value forecasting using relevance-based data augmentation with deep learning models

  • 基于相关性函数设计增强策略,聚焦极端值区域。
  • SMOTE增强使短/长周期预测准确率均显著提升。
  • 适配金融与气候等极端事件预测场景。

生成对抗网络(GANs)在处理类别不平衡问题上广泛应用于模式分类与计算机视觉领域。极端值预测是具有广泛应用的重要挑战性任务,涵盖金融与气候变化等领域。本文提出一种面向极端值预测的数据增强框架,结合深度学习模型(如卷积长短期记忆网络Conv-LSTM和双向长短期记忆网络BD-LSTM)与数据增强技术(如GANs和合成少数类过采样技术SMOTE),实现多步预测。研究对比不同增强方法在整体性能及极端区域预测精度上的表现,并评估计算效率。提出基于相关性函数的新型增强策略,聚焦极端值特征。结果表明,基于SMOTE的策略在各类数据下均展现出更强适应性,显著提升短期与长期预测性能;其中,Conv-LSTM在周期性强、稳定的序列中表现更优,而BD-LSTM则更适合混沌或非平稳序列。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Data augmentation with generative adversarial networks (GANs) has been popular for class imbalance problems, mainly for pattern classification and computer vision-related applications. Extreme value forecasting is a challenging field that has various applications from finance to climate change problems. In this study, we present a data augmentation framework for extreme value forecasting. In this framework, our focus is on forecasting extreme values using deep learning models in combination with data augmentation models such as GANs and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE). We use deep learning models such as convolutional long short-term memory (Conv-LSTM) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BD-LSTM) networks for multistep ahead prediction featuring extremes. We investigate which data augmentation models are the most suitable, taking into account the prediction accuracy overall and at extreme regions, along with computational efficiency. We also present novel strategies for incorporating data augmentation, considering extreme values based on a relevance function. Our results indicate that the SMOTE-based strategy consistently demonstrated superior adaptability, leading to improved performance across both short- and long-horizon forecasts. Conv-LSTM and BD-LSTM exhibit complementary strengths: the former excels in periodic, stable datasets, while the latter performs better in chaotic or non-stationary sequences.

极端值预测数据增强深度学习SMOTE

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