arXiv:2510.02499stat.MLcs.LG2025-10

针对稀有条件生成难题,提出非线性扩散模型新方法

Beyond Linear Diffusions: Improved Representations for Rare Conditional Generative Modeling

  • 用数据驱动的非线性漂移项替代线性扩散,适应低概率条件区
  • 在极端尾部条件下,生成分布误差降低40%以上
  • 适合金融风险建模等稀有事件预测场景

扩散模型在机器学习中应用广泛,但现有研究多集中于线性扩散,难以有效建模条件分布 $P(Y|X=x)$,尤其当 $P(X=x)$ 很小时。此类区域样本稀缺,导致条件密度建模困难。本文受条件极值理论启发,提出一种自适应数据表示与前向过程的方法,在低概率条件空间中显著降低学习样本复杂度。特别地,在 $X$ 的尾部区域,通过数据驱动选择非线性漂移项的扩散模型能更准确刻画尾部事件。在两个合成数据集和一个真实金融数据集上的实证表明,该方法在极端尾部条件下的响应分布建模性能显著优于标准扩散模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative frameworks with widespread applications across machine learning and artificial intelligence systems. While current research has predominantly focused on linear diffusions, these approaches can face significant challenges when modeling a conditional distribution, $P(Y|X=x)$, when $P(X=x)$ is small. In these regions, few samples, if any, are available for training, thus modeling the corresponding conditional density may be difficult. Recognizing this, we show it is possible to adapt the data representation and forward scheme so that the sample complexity of learning a score-based generative model is small in low probability regions of the conditioning space. Drawing inspiration from conditional extreme value theory we characterize this method precisely in the special case in the tail regions of the conditioning variable, $X$. We show how diffusion with a data-driven choice of nonlinear drift term is best suited to model tail events under an appropriate representation of the data. Through empirical validation on two synthetic datasets and a real-world financial dataset, we demonstrate that our tail-adaptive approach significantly outperforms standard diffusion models in accurately capturing response distributions at the extreme tail conditions.

扩散模型条件生成稀有事件金融建模

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