arXiv:2510.02605cs.LG2025-10被引 3

用可解释的物理模型提升全美流域水文预测,兼顾精度与机制理解。

Towards CONUS-Wide ML-Augmented Conceptually-Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics

  • 基于质量守恒感知机(MCP)构建可解释水文模型,适配不同水文区
  • 在全美范围验证,性能接近LSTM等数据驱动模型
  • 适合关注模型可解释性与机制理解的研究者

尽管众多研究致力于基于机器学习的大样本水文建模,但这些工作并未必然带来基于增强物理概念理解的预测改进。本文报告一项覆盖全美(CONUS)的大样本研究,采用基于质量守恒感知机(MCP)的、不同复杂度的可解释流域尺度模型,在多样化的水文-地质-气候条件下进行评估。通过雪区类型、森林覆盖率和气候区等属性掩码进行结果分析。结果表明,应根据水文过程主导性的变化选择合适复杂度的模型架构。基准对比显示,具有物理可解释性的质量守恒MCP模型性能可媲美基于长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的数据驱动模型。总体而言,本研究凸显了理论引导、物理基础的大型水文建模潜力,强调机制理解与简洁可解释模型架构的构建,为未来能够结构化编码空间-时间过程主导性的普适模型奠定基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

While many modern studies are dedicated to ML-based large-sample hydrologic modeling, these efforts have not necessarily translated into predictive improvements that are grounded in enhanced physical-conceptual understanding. Here, we report on a CONUS-wide large-sample study (spanning diverse hydro-geo-climatic conditions) using ML-augmented physically-interpretable catchment-scale models of varying complexity based in the Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP). Results were evaluated using attribute masks such as snow regime, forest cover, and climate zone. Our results indicate the importance of selecting model architectures of appropriate model complexity based on how process dominance varies with hydrological regime. Benchmark comparisons show that physically-interpretable mass-conserving MCP-based models can achieve performance comparable to data-based models based in the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) architecture. Overall, this study highlights the potential of a theory-informed, physically grounded approach to large-sample hydrology, with emphasis on mechanistic understanding and the development of parsimonious and interpretable model architectures, thereby laying the foundation for future models of everywhere that architecturally encode information about spatially- and temporally-varying process dominance.

水文建模可解释性机器学习物理模型

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