提出一种新可能性概念，用于评估现实事件的可行性和规划最优路径。
A Concept of Possibility for Real-World Events
- 基于前提条件和约束条件的概率计算事件可能性
- 可判断多个计划中哪个最易实现，适用于路径规划等场景
- 更贴近人类对计划可行性的直觉判断，适合智能规划系统
本文提出一种新的可能性概念，作为1978年L.A. Zadeh原始定义的替代方案。该概念虽受原理论启发，但形式上除均采用Łukasiewicz多值逻辑外无其他共同点。本研究聚焦于现实事件的可能性，将事件视为由使能前提与阻碍约束构成，其可能性由前提成立概率与约束不成立概率共同决定。该理论可用于规划问题：当存在多个达成目标的方案时，可据此判断哪个计划最具可行性。文中通过车辆路径规划示例说明其应用，并推测该模型能准确反映人类对计划的常规推理方式。还提出了潜在未来应用方向。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper offers a new concept of {\it possibility} as an alternative to the now-a-days standard concept originally introduced by L.A. Zadeh in 1978. This new version was inspired by the original but, formally, has nothing in common with it other than that they both adopt the Łukasiewicz multivalent interpretation of the logical connectives. Moreover, rather than seeking to provide a general notion of possibility, this focuses specifically on the possibility of a real-world event. An event is viewed as having prerequisites that enable its occurrence and constraints that may impede its occurrence, and the possibility of the event is computed as a function of the probabilities that the prerequisites hold and the constraints do not. This version of possibility might appropriately be applied to problems of planning. When there are multiple plans available for achieving a goal, this theory can be used to determine which plan is most possible, i.e., easiest or most feasible to complete. It is speculated that this model of reasoning correctly captures normal human reasoning about plans. The theory is elaborated and an illustrative example for vehicle route planning is provided. There is also a suggestion of potential future applications.
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