欧洲岛屿居民如何看待气候与土地利用对生物多样性的威胁
The land use-climate change-biodiversity nexus in European islands stakeholders
- 通过机器学习分析21个岛屿的岛民意见,量化气候与土地利用变化影响
- 温度是主要气候特征,砍伐森林是主导土地利用变化,水问题最紧迫
- 尽管地理差异大,但岛民普遍担忧生态破坏和生物多样性丧失
为推动气候适应与减缓,需理解利益相关者对土地利用与气候变化的认知与知识缺口。研究调研了21个欧洲岛屿的利益相关者,了解其对影响生态系统服务的气候与土地利用变化的看法。气候感知包括温度、降水、湿度、极端事件和风力;土地利用变化感知涵盖森林砍伐、海岸退化、生境保护、可再生能源设施、湿地等。此外还关注外来物种、水资源或能源短缺、基础设施问题及财政紧缩等议题。利用机器学习分析气候与土地利用变化影响的感知,结果显示温度是主导气候特征,森林砍伐是主导土地利用特征。水相关问题被列为最高优先级,能源相关问题(如能源不足及风能太阳能设施问题)则作为气候与土地利用复合风险排名靠前。利益相关者普遍认为气候变化对生态系统服务产生负面影响,自然生境破坏与生物多样性丧失是首要问题。土地利用变化的影响同样负面,但更复杂,解释变量更多。尽管存在地理差异,利益相关者在生物多样性影响上具有共同认知,但在气候与土地利用影响之间有所区分。水、能源及可再生能源问题引发严重关切,亟需管理措施。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
To promote climate adaptation and mitigation, it is crucial to understand stakeholder perspectives and knowledge gaps on land use and climate changes. Stakeholders across 21 European islands were consulted on climate and land use change issues affecting ecosystem services. Climate change perceptions included temperature, precipitation, humidity, extremes, and wind. Land use change perceptions included deforestation, coastal degradation, habitat protection, renewable energy facilities, wetlands, and others. Additional concerns such as invasive species, water or energy scarcity, infrastructure problems, and austerity were also considered. Climate and land use change impact perceptions were analysed with machine learning to quantify their influence. The predominant climatic characteristic is temperature, and the predominant land use characteristic is deforestation. Water-related problems are top priorities for stakeholders. Energy-related problems, including energy deficiency and issues with wind and solar facilities, rank high as combined climate and land use risks. Stakeholders generally perceive climate change impacts on ecosystem services as negative, with natural habitat destruction and biodiversity loss identified as top issues. Land use change impacts are also negative but more complex, with more explanatory variables. Stakeholders share common perceptions on biodiversity impacts despite geographic disparity, but they differentiate between climate and land use impacts. Water, energy, and renewable energy issues pose serious concerns, requiring management measures.
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