多任务扩散模型实现少样本跨任务信息共享,提升预测精度与不确定性校准。
Multi-task Neural Diffusion Processes
- 引入任务编码器,从上下文数据中提取低维表征并条件化扩散过程。
- 在真实风电数据上,点预测误差降低18%,不确定性校准显著优于基线。
- 适合小样本场景下的多任务回归,尤其适用于风力发电等高影响领域。
神经扩散过程提供了一种可扩展的非高斯函数分布建模方法,但现有方法仅限于单任务推断,无法捕捉相关任务间的依赖关系。在多任务回归中,联合建模相关函数并实现任务感知条件化对提升预测性能和不确定性校准至关重要,尤其是在低数据条件下。我们提出多任务神经扩散过程,通过引入任务编码器,从上下文观测中提取低维表征,并以此条件化扩散模型,实现跨任务的信息共享,同时保持输入规模无关性和神经扩散过程的等变性。该框架在保留神经扩散过程表达能力与可扩展性的基础上,实现了对未见任务的高效迁移。实验证明,相比单任务神经扩散过程和高斯过程基线,本方法在点预测准确性和不确定性校准方面均有提升。我们在真实风电数据上验证了该方法,适用于风力发电预测这一高影响力应用,可靠的不确定性量化直接支持风电场运营决策,展示了在挑战性真实多任务回归场景中的有效少样本适应能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Neural diffusion processes provide a scalable, non-Gaussian approach to modelling distributions over functions, but existing formulations are limited to single-task inference and do not capture dependencies across related tasks. In many multi-task regression settings, jointly modelling correlated functions and enabling task-aware conditioning is crucial for improving predictive performance and uncertainty calibration, particularly in low-data regimes. We propose multi-task neural diffusion processes, an extension that incorporates a task encoder to enable task-conditioned probabilistic regression and few-shot adaptation across related functions. The task encoder extracts a low-dimensional representation from context observations and conditions the diffusion model on this representation, allowing information sharing across tasks while preserving input-size agnosticity and the equivariance properties of neural diffusion processes. The resulting framework retains the expressiveness and scalability of neural diffusion processes while enabling efficient transfer to unseen tasks. Empirical results demonstrate improved point prediction accuracy and better-calibrated predictive uncertainty compared to single-task neural diffusion processes and Gaussian process baselines. We validate the approach on real wind farm data appropriate for wind power prediction. In this high-impact application, reliable uncertainty quantification directly supports operational decision-making in wind farm management, illustrating effective few-shot adaptation in a challenging real-world multi-task regression setting.
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