arXiv:2510.03633cs.LGcs.AI2025-10被引 2

用大模型优化推文情绪分析,提升股票涨跌预测准确率

Predicting Stock Price Movement with LLM-Enhanced Tweet Emotion Analysis

  • 用Llama 3预处理推文,增强三种情绪分析方法的效果
  • 结合历史股价数据,预测次日大幅波动,最高准确率达38.5%
  • 适合关注量化投资与社交媒体情绪分析的研究者

由于市场固有的波动性及对投资者情绪的敏感性,准确预测短期股票价格走势仍具挑战。本文提出一种深度学习框架,将从推文数据中提取的情绪特征与历史股价信息结合,预测次日显著价格变动。我们采用Meta的Llama 3.1-8B-Instruct模型预处理推文,提升基于Transformer的DistilRoBERTa分类器(来自Hugging Face)及两种基于NRC资源的词典法情绪分析的效果。这些情绪特征与前一日股价数据共同用于训练长短期记忆网络(LSTM)。在TSLA、AAPL和AMZN股票上的实验表明,三种情绪分析方法均优于仅使用历史股价的基线模型(准确率13.5%)。其中,基于DistilRoBERTa的模型在引入LLaMA增强情绪分析后,准确率从23.6%提升至38.5%。结果表明,利用大语言模型预处理推文内容可有效提升情绪分析质量,进而增强对显著股价变动的预测能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately predicting short-term stock price movement remains a challenging task due to the market's inherent volatility and sensitivity to investor sentiment. This paper discusses a deep learning framework that integrates emotion features extracted from tweet data with historical stock price information to forecast significant price changes on the following day. We utilize Meta's Llama 3.1-8B-Instruct model to preprocess tweet data, thereby enhancing the quality of emotion features derived from three emotion analysis approaches: a transformer-based DistilRoBERTa classifier from the Hugging Face library and two lexicon-based methods using National Research Council Canada (NRC) resources. These features are combined with previous-day stock price data to train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. Experimental results on TSLA, AAPL, and AMZN stocks show that all three emotion analysis methods improve the average accuracy for predicting significant price movements, compared to the baseline model using only historical stock prices, which yields an accuracy of 13.5%. The DistilRoBERTa-based stock prediction model achieves the best performance, with accuracy rising from 23.6% to 38.5% when using LLaMA-enhanced emotion analysis. These results demonstrate that using large language models to preprocess tweet content enhances the effectiveness of emotion analysis which in turn improves the accuracy of predicting significant stock price movements.

股票预测情绪分析大模型应用

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