arXiv:2510.04263cs.LGcs.AI2025-10被引 3

用评分引导的靶向测试,让有隐藏变量的因果发现更快更准。

Efficient Latent Variable Causal Discovery: Combining Score Search and Targeted Testing

  • 用评分搜索替代全量检验,减少无效测试
  • 新方法在不同样本量下精度更高、效率更强
  • 适合需要快速可靠因果推断的研究者

从观测数据中学习因果结构在存在隐藏变量或选择偏差时极具挑战。FCI算法虽能处理此情况,但需对大量子集进行全量条件独立性检验,常导致虚假独立性、遗漏或多余边以及方向判断不可靠。本文提出一类基于评分的混合策略因果搜索算法。首先,引入BOSS-FCI和GRaSP-FCI,它们以BOSS(最佳顺序评分搜索)或GRaSP(稀疏排列的贪心松弛)替代FGES(快速贪心等价搜索),在保持正确性的前提下权衡可扩展性与保守性。其次,提出FCI靶向测试(FCIT),用由BOSS指导的评分驱动的靶向测试取代全量测试,保证了良好形成的PAG,并在不同样本量下实现更高精度与效率。最后,提出轻量级启发式方法LV-Dumb,返回BOSS DAG对应的PAG。尽管不严格适用于隐藏混杂,其准确率常接近FCIT,但运行速度显著更快。模拟与真实数据分析表明:BOSS-FCI与GRaSP-FCI提供稳健基线,FCIT取得精度与可靠性最佳平衡,而LV-Dumb是快速近似替代方案。这些方法共同证明,靶向与评分引导策略能大幅提升隐藏变量因果发现的效率与正确性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Learning causal structure from observational data is especially challenging when latent variables or selection bias are present. The Fast Causal Inference (FCI) algorithm addresses this setting but performs exhaustive conditional independence tests across many subsets, often leading to spurious independences, missing or extra edges, and unreliable orientations. We present a family of score-guided mixed-strategy causal search algorithms that extend this framework. First, we introduce BOSS-FCI and GRaSP-FCI, variants of GFCI (Greedy Fast Causal Inference) that substitute BOSS (Best Order Score Search) or GRaSP (Greedy Relaxations of Sparsest Permutation) for FGES (Fast Greedy Equivalence Search), preserving correctness while trading off scalability and conservativeness. Second, we develop FCI Targeted-Testing (FCIT), a novel hybrid method that replaces exhaustive testing with targeted, score-informed tests guided by BOSS. FCIT guarantees well-formed PAGs and achieves higher precision and efficiency across sample sizes. Finally, we propose a lightweight heuristic, LV-Dumb (Latent Variable "Dumb"), which returns the PAG of the BOSS DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph). Though not strictly sound for latent confounding, LV-Dumb often matches FCIT's accuracy while running substantially faster. Simulations and real-data analyses show that BOSS-FCI and GRaSP-FCI provide robust baselines, FCIT yields the best balance of precision and reliability, and LV-Dumb offers a fast, near-equivalent alternative. Together, these methods demonstrate that targeted and score-guided strategies can dramatically improve the efficiency and correctness of latent-variable causal discovery.

因果发现隐藏变量评分搜索高效算法

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