用混合模型提升交通事故严重程度预测准确率
Crash Severity Prediction Using Deep Learning Approaches: A Hybrid CNN-RNN Framework
- 结合CNN与RNN优势,捕捉事故特征的时空关联
- 在15870条数据上表现优于多种传统和深度学习模型
- 适合智能交通系统快速响应与急救调度应用
准确及时地预测交通事故严重程度对于减轻事故后果至关重要。为提供适当的医疗救助与交通服务,智能交通系统依赖有效的预测方法。深度学习模型因其能捕捉变量间的非线性关系而受到关注。本研究构建了混合CNN-RNN深度学习模型用于事故严重程度预测,并与逻辑回归、朴素贝叶斯分类器、K近邻(KNN)、决策树及单独的RNN和CNN模型进行对比。研究基于2015至2021年间在弗吉尼亚州I-64高速公路收集的15,870条事故记录开展。结果表明,所提出的CNN-RNN混合模型在预测事故严重程度方面优于所有基准模型,验证了其通过融合CNN的空间特征提取能力与RNN的时间序列建模优势,显著提升了预测精度。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate and timely prediction of crash severity is crucial in mitigating the severe consequences of traffic accidents. Accurate and timely prediction of crash severity is crucial in mitigating the severe consequences of traffic accidents. In order to provide appropriate levels of medical assistance and transportation services, an intelligent transportation system relies on effective prediction methods. Deep learning models have gained popularity in this domain due to their capability to capture non-linear relationships among variables. In this research, we have implemented a hybrid CNN-RNN deep learning model for crash severity prediction and compared its performance against widely used statistical and machine learning models such as logistic regression, naïve bayes classifier, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), decision tree, and individual deep learning models: RNN and CNN. This study employs a methodology that considers the interconnected relationships between various features of traffic accidents. The study was conducted using a dataset of 15,870 accident records gathered over a period of seven years between 2015 and 2021 on Virginia highway I-64. The findings demonstrate that the proposed CNN-RNN hybrid model has outperformed all benchmark models in terms of predicting crash severity. This result illustrates the effectiveness of the hybrid model as it combines the advantages of both RNN and CNN models in order to achieve greater accuracy in the prediction process.
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