arXiv:2510.04365cs.CV2025-10被引 5

针对突发行人轨迹预测难题,提出双扩散模型增强准确性

Diffusion^2: Dual Diffusion Model with Uncertainty-Aware Adaptive Noise for Momentary Trajectory Prediction

  • 用两个串联扩散模型,先补全历史轨迹再预测未来
  • 在ETH/UCY和Stanford Drone数据集上达到新最佳性能
  • 自适应噪声机制有效降低不确定性带来的误差,适合复杂交通场景

准确预测行人轨迹对自动驾驶和人机交互中的安全与效率至关重要。以往研究依赖充分观测数据进行预测,但在真实场景中(如行人突然从盲区出现),往往缺乏足够观测数据(即瞬时轨迹),导致预测困难且增加事故风险。因此,提升极端场景下的行人轨迹预测能力对交通安全具有重要意义。本文提出一种名为Diffusion^2的新框架,专为瞬时轨迹预测设计。Diffusion^2包含两个顺序连接的扩散模型:一个用于反向预测,生成缺失的历史轨迹;另一个用于正向预测,预测未来轨迹。考虑到生成的历史轨迹可能引入额外噪声,我们提出双头参数化机制以估计其随机不确定性,并设计时间自适应噪声模块,在前向扩散过程中动态调节噪声强度。实验表明,Diffusion^2在ETH/UCY和Stanford Drone数据集上的瞬时轨迹预测任务中达到新的最优水平。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and efficiency in autonomous driving and human-robot interaction scenarios. Earlier studies primarily utilized sufficient observational data to predict future trajectories. However, in real-world scenarios, such as pedestrians suddenly emerging from blind spots, sufficient observational data is often unavailable (i.e. momentary trajectory), making accurate prediction challenging and increasing the risk of traffic accidents. Therefore, advancing research on pedestrian trajectory prediction under extreme scenarios is critical for enhancing traffic safety. In this work, we propose a novel framework termed Diffusion^2, tailored for momentary trajectory prediction. Diffusion^2 consists of two sequentially connected diffusion models: one for backward prediction, which generates unobserved historical trajectories, and the other for forward prediction, which forecasts future trajectories. Given that the generated unobserved historical trajectories may introduce additional noise, we propose a dual-head parameterization mechanism to estimate their aleatoric uncertainty and design a temporally adaptive noise module that dynamically modulates the noise scale in the forward diffusion process. Empirically, Diffusion^2 sets a new state-of-the-art in momentary trajectory prediction on ETH/UCY and Stanford Drone datasets.

轨迹预测扩散模型不确定性建模

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