通过自监督偏差学习,提升时空预测对异常变化的感知能力。
How Different from the Past? Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting with Self-Supervised Deviation Learning
- 用可学习原型表征历史模式,将当前输入与历史均值对比。
- 引入对比损失和偏差损失,精准量化输入与历史模式的偏离程度。
- 适用于交通、城市计算等需捕捉动态异常的场景。
时空预测在交通管理、城市计算等实际应用中至关重要。尽管现有方法精度提升明显,但普遍忽视了当前输入与历史模式之间的动态偏差。这些偏差蕴含关键信号,显著影响模型表现。为此,我们提出ST-SSDL框架,采用自监督偏差学习机制,捕捉并利用此类偏差。该框架将每个输入锚定在其历史均值上,通过可学习原型离散化隐空间,表征典型时空模式。设计了两个辅助目标:对比损失增强原型间可区分性,偏差损失则约束输入表示与对应原型的距离一致性,以量化偏差。这些组件与预测目标联合优化,引导模型组织隐空间,在不同输入条件下提升泛化能力。在六个基准数据集上的实验表明,ST-SSDL在多项指标上持续优于先进基线。可视化进一步证明其在复杂时空场景中自适应响应不同程度偏差的能力。代码与数据集见https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/ST-SSDL。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Spatio-temporal forecasting is essential for real-world applications such as traffic management and urban computing. Although recent methods have shown improved accuracy, they often fail to account for dynamic deviations between current inputs and historical patterns. These deviations contain critical signals that can significantly affect model performance. To fill this gap, we propose ST-SSDL, a Spatio-Temporal time series forecasting framework that incorporates a Self-Supervised Deviation Learning scheme to capture and utilize such deviations. ST-SSDL anchors each input to its historical average and discretizes the latent space using learnable prototypes that represent typical spatio-temporal patterns. Two auxiliary objectives are proposed to refine this structure: a contrastive loss that enhances inter-prototype discriminability and a deviation loss that regularizes the distance consistency between input representations and corresponding prototypes to quantify deviation. Optimized jointly with the forecasting objective, these components guide the model to organize its hidden space and improve generalization across diverse input conditions. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that ST-SSDL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics. Visualizations further demonstrate its ability to adaptively respond to varying levels of deviation in complex spatio-temporal scenarios. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/ST-SSDL.
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