arXiv:2510.05589cs.LGcs.AI2025-10中稿 · ICML

用大模型辅助去噪,让模型在无源数据下也能精准预测时间序列。

Invariant Representation Learning for Source-Free Time Series Forecasting with LLM-Centric Proxy Denoising

  • 通过分解趋势与季节性,实现特征和梯度双不变的表示学习。
  • 轻量级无参数去噪动态校正大模型系统偏差,提升预测精度。
  • 适合数据稀缺且需保护隐私的工业场景,如医疗、金融时序预测。

有效的时间序列预测推动了多种现实应用的发展,得益于移动设备的普及。然而,由于高昂的数据采集成本和数据法规限制,不同领域的数据量可能差异显著。为最大化稀疏数据的价值,本文关注一种新型的无源时间序列预测问题:在无法访问源数据的前提下,将预训练于充足源数据的模型适配到目标稀疏数据上,同时保障数据安全。为此,提出基于大语言模型(LLM)中心代理去噪的框架TimeID。该框架包含三个核心组件:(1) 双分支不变解耦特征学习,通过趋势-季节性分解实现表征与梯度层面的不变性;(2) 轻量级、无参数的代理去噪机制,动态校准大模型的系统偏差;(3) 双向知识蒸馏,对齐去噪后预测与原始目标预测。在真实数据集上的大量实验表明,TimeID平均提升MSE 10.7%、MAE 9.3%,优于现有最优基线。代码已开源:https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TimeID。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Effective time series forecasting enables various real-world applications, benefiting from the proliferation of mobile devices. However, the volume of time series data may vary significantly across domains due to high data acquisition costs and data regulations. To maximally create value from sparse data, this study focuses on a new problem of source-free time series forecasting, aiming to adapt a pretrained model from sufficient source time series to the sparse target time series without access to the source data, enabling data protection. To achieve this, we propose TimeID, a novel source-free time series forecasting framework with a large language model (LLM) centric proxy denoising inspired by the powerful generalization capabilities of LLMs. Specifically, TimeID consists of three key components: (1) dual-branch invariant disentangled feature learning that enforces representation- and gradient-wise invariance by means of season-trend decomposition; (2) lightweight, parameter-free proxy denoising that dynamically calibrates systematic biases of LLMs; and (3) knowledge distillation that bidirectionally aligns the denoised prediction and the original target prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeID outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, improving MSE and MAE by 10.7% and 9.3% on average. The code is available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TimeID.

时间序列无源迁移大模型去噪

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