arXiv:2510.06444cs.LGcs.AI2025-10

用预测模型提前选更准的推理结果,提升去中心化网络的准确性。

Context-Aware Inference via Performance Forecasting in Decentralized Learning Networks

  • 基于性能预测动态分配权重,提前选择更可靠的模型
  • 预测后悔值的模型使网络推理准确率显著提升
  • 适合需要快速响应变化的实时推理场景

在去中心化学习网络中,多个参与者的预测结果被整合以生成网络推理。尽管已有研究证明多模型融合能提升性能,但现有线性加权方法(如简单平均或动态权重更新)存在滞后问题:依赖历史表现的动态权重需跨多个轮次平均,难以及时适应环境变化。本文提出一种机器学习模型,用于预测各模型在时间序列中每轮的表现,实现“上下文感知”的权重分配,优先赋予未来更可能准确的模型更高权重。实验表明,在类似Allora网络的设计中引入性能预测模块,可有效提升网络推理准确率。其中,预测后悔值(相对于网络推理的性能偏差)或后悔z-score(相对于其他参与者的表现)的模型效果优于直接预测损失的模型,后者常不如朴素的时序加权平均。优化测试显示,预测模型性能对特征集和训练轮数敏感,需针对具体任务调整。该方法虽专为去中心化网络设计,但适用于任何需要前瞻性而非反应式权重分配的场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In decentralized learning networks, predictions from many participants are combined to generate a network inference. While many studies have demonstrated performance benefits of combining multiple model predictions, existing strategies using linear pooling methods (ranging from simple averaging to dynamic weight updates) face a key limitation. Dynamic prediction combinations that rely on historical performance to update weights are necessarily reactive. Due to the need to average over a reasonable number of epochs (with moving averages or exponential weighting), they tend to be slow to adjust to changing circumstances (phase or regime changes). In this work, we develop a model that uses machine learning to forecast the performance of predictions by models at each epoch in a time series. This enables `context-awareness' by assigning higher weight to models that are likely to be more accurate at a given time. We show that adding a performance forecasting worker in a decentralized learning network, following a design similar to the Allora network, can improve the accuracy of network inferences. Specifically, we find forecasting models that predict regret (performance relative to the network inference) or regret z-score (performance relative to other workers) show greater improvement than models predicting losses, which often do not outperform the naive network inference (historically weighted average of all inferences). Through a series of optimization tests, we show that the performance of the forecasting model can be sensitive to choices in the feature set and number of training epochs. These properties may depend on the exact problem and should be tailored to each domain. Although initially designed for a decentralized learning network, using performance forecasting for prediction combination may be useful in any situation where predictive rather than reactive model weighting is needed.

去中心化学习预测加权性能预测

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