用控制器提升扩散模型的预报稳定性,加速数据融合
Control-Augmented Autoregressive Diffusion for Data Assimilation
- 预训练模型加一个离线训练的控制器,每步微调生成路径
- 在混沌方程上实现十倍提速,精度超越现有方法
- 适合需要快速稳定预测的气象、物理模拟场景
尽管测试时缩放和扩散微调取得进展,自回归扩散模型(ARDMs)的引导机制仍不充分。本文提出一种可复用的摊销框架,通过离线训练的控制器增强预训练的 ARDM。控制器通过预览未来轨迹,学习分步修正策略,在终端代价目标下预测观测值,形成可复用的引导策略。基于随机最优控制视角,方法在每个去噪子步骤中注入微小控制,同时保持与预训练动态的接近性。我们在混沌时空偏微分方程的数据同化(DA)任务中验证该方法,现有方法常计算昂贵且稀疏观测下易产生预报漂移。推理时,数据同化变为前馈滚动,结合实时修正,相比强基线方法提速一个数量级。在两个典型偏微分方程及涵盖六种观测情形的紧凑版ECMWF Reanalysis v5(ERA5)试点中,本方法持续提升稳定性和准确性,大规模GenCast研究也观察到类似改进。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Despite advances in test-time scaling and diffusion finetuning, guidance for Auto-Regressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs) remains underexplored. We introduce an amortized framework that augments a pretrained ARDM with an offline-trained controller. By previewing future rollouts, the controller learns stepwise corrections that anticipate observations under a terminal-cost objective, yielding a reusable policy for guided generation. Motivated by a stochastic optimal control view of ARDM trajectories, our method injects small controls within each denoising sub-step while staying close to the pretrained dynamics. We study this approach for dataassimilation (DA) in chaotic spatiotemporal partial differential equations (PDEs), where existing methods are often computationally expensive and susceptible to forecast drift under sparse observations. At inference, DA becomes a feed-forward rollout with on-the-fly corrections, achieving an order-of-magnitude speedup over strong diffusion-based baselines. Across two canonical PDEs and a compact ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) pilot spanning six observation regimes, our method consistently improves stability and accuracy over state-of-the-art alternatives, with similar improvements observed in a larger-scale GenCast study.
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