arXiv:2510.06852cs.LGcs.AI2025-10被引 1

用机器学习提升银行破产预测准确率,最高达90%。

Enhancing Bankruptcy Prediction of Banks through Advanced Machine Learning Techniques: An Innovative Approach and Analysis

  • 用随机森林等模型替代传统统计方法进行破产预测。
  • 商业银行预测准确率达90%,农村银行也表现良好。
  • 适合金融风控、监管机构及银行管理者参考。

金融系统稳定性取决于银行体系状况。银行倒闭会引发系统性风险,影响整个金融系统。预测银行破产概率是保障银行体系安全的重要手段。现有研究多采用统计模型如Altman的Z-Score,但其依赖刚性假设,预测精度较低。本文采用逻辑回归(LR)、随机森林(RF)和支持向量机(SVM)等机器学习方法构建破产预测模型。数据来自1994–2004年土耳其44家活跃银行与21家破产银行的年报,以及2013–2019年印度尼西亚43家活跃农村银行与43家破产农村银行的季报,另选5家农村银行验证趋势分析可行性。实验结果表明,随机森林对商业银行破产预测准确率达90%;三种机器学习方法均能有效预测农村银行破产。该方法有助于制定降低破产成本的政策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Context: Financial system stability is determined by the condition of the banking system. A bank failure can destroy the stability of the financial system, as banks are subject to systemic risk, affecting not only individual banks but also segments or the entire financial system. Calculating the probability of a bank going bankrupt is one way to ensure the banking system is safe and sound. Existing literature and limitations: Statistical models, such as Altman's Z-Score, are one of the common techniques for developing a bankruptcy prediction model. However, statistical methods rely on rigid and sometimes irrelevant assumptions, which can result in low forecast accuracy. New approaches are necessary. Objective of the research: Bankruptcy models are developed using machine learning techniques, such as logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and support vector machines (SVM). According to several studies, machine learning is also more accurate and effective than statistical methods for categorising and forecasting banking risk management. Present Research: The commercial bank data are derived from the annual financial statements of 44 active banks and 21 bankrupt banks in Turkey from 1994 to 2004, and the rural bank data are derived from the quarterly financial reports of 43 active and 43 bankrupt rural banks in Indonesia between 2013 and 2019. Five rural banks in Indonesia have also been selected to demonstrate the feasibility of analysing bank bankruptcy trends. Findings and implications: The results of the research experiments show that RF can forecast data from commercial banks with a 90% accuracy rate. Furthermore, the three machine learning methods proposed accurately predict the likelihood of rural bank bankruptcy. Contribution and Conclusion: The proposed innovative machine learning approach help to implement policies that reduce the costs of bankruptcy.

破产预测机器学习银行风控

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