TS-Agent让大模型直接分析原始时间序列,避免幻觉和信息泄露。
TS-Agent: Understanding and Reasoning Over Raw Time Series via Iterative Insight Gathering
- 大模型只负责迭代推理,统计分析由专用工具处理原始数据
- 在四个基准上表现超越现有方法,尤其在零样本推理任务中提升显著
- 适合需要高可靠性、避免幻觉的时间序列分析场景
大语言模型(LLM)具备强大的符号与组合推理能力,但在时间序列问答任务中表现不佳,因数据常需转换为文本、图像或嵌入表示,导致表征瓶颈,需跨模态对齐或微调,且易引发幻觉和知识泄露。为此,我们提出TS-Agent,一种基于代理的、工具驱动的框架,仅用大模型进行迭代式证据推理,而将统计与结构提取任务交由操作原始序列的时序分析工具完成。该框架通过三步实现:(1) 采用类似ReAct的思维-执行-观察循环;(2) 显式记录中间结果并由自修正批评者纠正推理路径;(3) 强制最终答案验证以防止幻觉与泄露。在四个涵盖时间序列理解与推理的基准上,TS-Agent的表现达到或超过主流文本、视觉及时序语言模型基线,尤其在零样本推理任务中优势明显。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong symbolic and compositional reasoning, yet they struggle with time series question answering as the data is typically transformed into an LLM-compatible modality, e.g., serialized text, plotted images, or compressed time series embeddings. Such conversions impose representation bottlenecks, often require cross-modal alignment or finetuning, and can exacerbate hallucination and knowledge leakage. To address these limitations, we propose TS-Agent, an agentic, tool-grounded framework that uses LLMs strictly for iterative evidence-based reasoning, while delegating statistical and structural extraction to time series analytical tools operating on raw sequences. Our framework solves time series tasks through an evidence-driven agentic process: (1) it alternates between thinking, tool execution, and observation in a ReAct-style loop, (2) records intermediate results in an explicit evidence log and corrects the reasoning trace via a self-refinement critic, and (3) enforces a final answer-verification step to prevent hallucinations and leakage. Across four benchmarks spanning time series understanding and reasoning, TS-Agent matches or exceeds strong text-based, vision-based, and time-series language model baselines, with the largest gains on reasoning tasks where multimodal LLMs are prone to hallucination and knowledge leakage in zero-shot settings.
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