用关键词解析新闻对股价影响,让预测结果可解释。
IKNet: Interpretable Stock Price Prediction via Keyword-Guided Integration of News and Technical Indicators
- 通过关键词语义分析提取新闻关键信息,结合技术指标预测股价
- 相比基线模型,预测误差降低32.9%,累计收益提升18.5%
- 可量化每条新闻关键词的贡献,适合关注可解释性的金融研究者
新闻等非结构化外部信息对股价的影响日益显著。现有基于新闻的预测模型多使用情感分数或平均嵌入表示文章,仅捕捉整体情绪而无法提供定量、上下文相关的解释。为此,我们提出可解释的关键词引导网络(IKNet),该框架通过FinBERT进行上下文分析,识别关键新闻词汇,对每个词汇嵌入分别进行非线性投影,并与技术指标时间序列融合,预测次日收盘价。利用Shapley加法解释生成每关键词对预测的量化贡献。在2015至2024年标普500数据上的实证表明,IKNet优于循环神经网络和变压器模型,最大降低RMSE达32.9%,累计回报提升18.5%。同时,模型能提供由公众情绪驱动波动事件的上下文解释,增强透明度。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The increasing influence of unstructured external information, such as news articles, on stock prices has attracted growing attention in financial markets. Despite recent advances, most existing newsbased forecasting models represent all articles using sentiment scores or average embeddings that capture the general tone but fail to provide quantitative, context-aware explanations of the impacts of public sentiment on predictions. To address this limitation, we propose an interpretable keyword-guided network (IKNet), which is an explainable forecasting framework that models the semantic association between individual news keywords and stock price movements. The IKNet identifies salient keywords via FinBERTbased contextual analysis, processes each embedding through a separate nonlinear projection layer, and integrates their representations with the time-series data of technical indicators to forecast next-day closing prices. By applying Shapley Additive Explanations the model generates quantifiable and interpretable attributions for the contribution of each keyword to predictions. Empirical evaluations of S&P 500 data from 2015 to 2024 demonstrate that IKNet outperforms baselines, including recurrent neural networks and transformer models, reducing RMSE by up to 32.9% and improving cumulative returns by 18.5%. Moreover, IKNet enhances transparency by offering contextualized explanations of volatility events driven by public sentiment.
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