arXiv:2510.08748cs.LG2025-10NeurIPS被引 13

让深度学习模型预测有可靠风险保障,还能提升平均性能。

Conformal Risk Training: End-to-End Optimization of Conformal Risk Control

  • 直接优化风险控制目标,端到端训练模型以保证可靠性
  • 能同时控制期望损失和尾部风险,如条件风险价值(CVaR)
  • 适合对风险敏感的场景,如金融、医疗决策

尽管深度学习模型通常具有高预测准确率,但其预测往往缺乏可证明的风险或可靠性保障,这对高风险应用部署至关重要。共形风险控制(CRC)框架提供了一种分布无关、有限样本下的方法,可控制任意有界单调损失函数的期望值,且可方便地后处理应用于任何预训练的深度学习模型。然而,许多现实应用场景更关注尾部风险而非平均损失。本文提出一种控制广义优化确定性等价(OCE)风险的方法,该类风险涵盖期望损失(推广原始CRC方法)和常见的尾部风险如条件风险价值(CVaR)。此外,标准的后处理CRC可能因缺乏对模型的反馈而损害平均性能。为此,我们引入“共形风险训练”,一种在模型训练或微调过程中可微分地通过共形OCE风险控制的端到端方法。该方法在控制分类器假阴性率和电池储能运行中的金融风险任务上,既实现了可证明的风险保障,又显著优于后处理方法的平均性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

While deep learning models often achieve high predictive accuracy, their predictions typically do not come with any provable guarantees on risk or reliability, which are critical for deployment in high-stakes applications. The framework of conformal risk control (CRC) provides a distribution-free, finite-sample method for controlling the expected value of any bounded monotone loss function and can be conveniently applied post-hoc to any pre-trained deep learning model. However, many real-world applications are sensitive to tail risks, as opposed to just expected loss. In this work, we develop a method for controlling the general class of Optimized Certainty-Equivalent (OCE) risks, a broad class of risk measures which includes as special cases the expected loss (generalizing the original CRC method) and common tail risks like the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Furthermore, standard post-hoc CRC can degrade average-case performance due to its lack of feedback to the model. To address this, we introduce "conformal risk training," an end-to-end approach that differentiates through conformal OCE risk control during model training or fine-tuning. Our method achieves provable risk guarantees while demonstrating significantly improved average-case performance over post-hoc approaches on applications to controlling classifiers' false negative rate and controlling financial risk in battery storage operation.

风险控制深度学习共形推理金融应用

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