arXiv:2510.08916stat.MLcs.LG2025-10中稿 · ICLR

提出新型核方法,高效估计事件序列的触发核函数。

A Representer Theorem for Hawkes Processes via Penalized Least Squares Minimization

  • 用惩罚最小二乘法构建新表示定理,将无限维问题转为有限维线性组合。
  • 最优估计中双系数恒为1,无需求解复杂优化,计算效率显著提升。
  • 适用于大规模事件数据,兼具高精度与低计算成本,适合时序建模研究者。

表示定理是核方法的核心,旨在非参数地估计再生核希尔伯特空间(RKHS)中的潜在函数。其意义在于将固有的无限维优化问题转化为关于对偶系数的有限维问题,从而实现可计算且高效的算法。本文研究基于观测事件序列,在线性多变量霍克斯过程框架下估计潜在的触发核函数——即编码事件间相互作用结构的函数。我们证明,在惩罚最小二乘最小化原则下,出现一种新的表示定理形式:可通过一组联立积分方程定义一族变换后的核函数,每个触发核的最优估计可表示为这些变换核在数据点处取值的线性组合。令人惊讶的是,对偶系数全部解析固定为1,无需求解代价高昂的优化问题以获得对偶系数。这使得所提估计器具有极高效率,相比传统非参数方法能更有效地处理大规模数据。在合成数据集上的实验表明,该方法在预测精度上达到与现有先进核方法相当的水平,同时大幅提高计算效率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The representer theorem is a cornerstone of kernel methods, which aim to estimate latent functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) in a nonparametric manner. Its significance lies in converting inherently infinite-dimensional optimization problems into finite-dimensional ones over dual coefficients, thereby enabling practical and computationally tractable algorithms. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating the latent triggering kernels--functions that encode the interaction structure between events--for linear multivariate Hawkes processes based on observed event sequences within an RKHS framework. We show that, under the principle of penalized least squares minimization, a novel form of representer theorem emerges: a family of transformed kernels can be defined via a system of simultaneous integral equations, and the optimal estimator of each triggering kernel is expressed as a linear combination of these transformed kernels evaluated at the data points. Remarkably, the dual coefficients are all analytically fixed to unity, obviating the need to solve a costly optimization problem to obtain the dual coefficients. This leads to a highly efficient estimator capable of handling large-scale data more effectively than conventional nonparametric approaches. Empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets reveal that the proposed method attains competitive predictive accuracy while substantially improving computational efficiency over existing state-of-the-art kernel method-based estimators.

事件序列霍克斯过程核方法高效估计

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