通过置信度引导推理路径,提升点击率预测在测试时的准确性。
MATT-CTR: Unleashing a Model-Agnostic Test-Time Paradigm for CTR Prediction with Confidence-Guided Inference Paths
- 基于特征组合置信度生成多条个性化推理路径。
- 在多个主流模型上实现点击率预测显著提升。
- 适合需要高可靠性点击率预测的工业场景。
近年来,研究主要集中在优化点击率(CTR)模型架构以更好地建模特征交互,或改进训练目标以促进参数学习,从而提升预测性能。然而,以往工作大多关注训练阶段,忽视了推理阶段的优化潜力。特别是稀有特征组合常导致预测性能下降,产生不可靠或低置信度输出。为释放已训练CTR模型的预测潜力,我们提出一种模型无关的测试时范式MATT,利用特征组合的置信度引导生成多条推理路径,减轻低置信度特征对最终预测的影响。具体而言,为量化特征组合置信度,引入层次化概率哈希方法,估计不同阶数特征组合的发生频率,作为其置信度评分。随后,以置信度分数作为采样概率,通过迭代采样生成多条实例特定的推理路径,并聚合多路径预测得分以实现鲁棒预测。大量离线实验与在线A/B测试验证了MATT在现有各类CTR模型上的兼容性与有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recently, a growing body of research has focused on either optimizing CTR model architectures to better model feature interactions or refining training objectives to aid parameter learning, thereby achieving better predictive performance. However, previous efforts have primarily focused on the training phase, largely neglecting opportunities for optimization during the inference phase. Infrequently occurring feature combinations, in particular, can degrade prediction performance, leading to unreliable or low-confidence outputs. To unlock the predictive potential of trained CTR models, we propose a Model-Agnostic Test-Time paradigm (MATT), which leverages the confidence scores of feature combinations to guide the generation of multiple inference paths, thereby mitigating the influence of low-confidence features on the final prediction. Specifically, to quantify the confidence of feature combinations, we introduce a hierarchical probabilistic hashing method to estimate the occurrence frequencies of feature combinations at various orders, which serve as their corresponding confidence scores. Then, using the confidence scores as sampling probabilities, we generate multiple instance-specific inference paths through iterative sampling and subsequently aggregate the prediction scores from multiple paths to conduct robust predictions. Finally, extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests strongly validate the compatibility and effectiveness of MATT across existing CTR models.
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