arXiv:2510.09048cs.LG2025-10被引 3

用多源数据预测电动车充电需求,提升电网与基建规划效率

Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks for EV Charging Demand Forecasting Using Real-World Multi-Modal Data Integration

  • 融合交通、天气和充电桩数据,构建时空图卷积模型
  • 3小时预测效果最佳,1DCNN在时间建模上表现最优
  • 适合电力规划与智慧交通研究者参考

交通运输仍是温室气体排放的主要来源,推动电动车辆(EV)转型刻不容缓。然而充电设施空间分布不均、使用不规律,给电网稳定与投资决策带来挑战。本研究提出TW-GCN框架,结合图卷积网络与时间建模结构,基于美国田纳西州的真实交通流、气象数据及美国最大电动车基础设施公司提供的专有数据,预测电动车充电需求。在不同延迟窗口、聚类策略与序列长度下的实验表明,3小时中程预测在响应速度与稳定性之间取得最佳平衡,1DCNN始终优于其他时间模型。区域分析显示东、中、西田纳西地区预测精度存在差异,反映站点密度、人口与本地需求波动对模型性能的影响。该框架推动数据驱动智能融入电动车基础设施规划,助力可持续出行与韧性电网管理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Transportation remains a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the urgency of transitioning toward sustainable alternatives such as electric vehicles (EVs). Yet, uneven spatial distribution and irregular utilization of charging infrastructure create challenges for both power grid stability and investment planning. This study introduces TW-GCN, a spatio-temporal forecasting framework that combines Graph Convolutional Networks with temporal architectures to predict EV charging demand in Tennessee, United States (U.S.). We utilize real-world traffic flows, weather conditions, and proprietary data provided by one of the largest EV infrastructure company in the U.S. to capture both spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments across varying lag horizons, clustering strategies, and sequence lengths reveal that mid-horizon (3-hour) forecasts achieve the best balance between responsiveness and stability, with 1DCNN consistently outperforming other temporal models. Regional analysis shows disparities in predictive accuracy across East, Middle, and West Tennessee, reflecting how station density, population, and local demand variability shape model performance. The proposed TW-GCN framework advances the integration of data-driven intelligence into EV infrastructure planning, supporting both sustainable mobility transitions and resilient grid management.

电动车需求预测时空模型图神经网络

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