提出一种新方法,用响应梯度高效计算系统失效概率的敏感性。
Reliability Sensitivity with Response Gradient
- 基于响应梯度与条件期望,构建通用敏感性计算框架。
- 单次蒙特卡洛模拟即可获得所有响应阈值的敏感性估计。
- 适用于参数多样、响应隐式且稀有事件难处理的工程系统。
工程风险关注失效可能性及其发生场景。失效概率对系统参数变化的敏感性对风险决策至关重要。敏感性计算至少比概率本身多一个量级难度,尤其在输入变量多、罕见事件、隐式非线性‘黑箱’响应的情况下。有限差分结合蒙特卡洛估计会引入伪误差,需样本数随步长倒数增长以抑制方差。现有方法常依赖特定输入类型、敏感性参数或响应的精确/近似形式。本文针对一般系统,提出一套理论及配套蒙特卡洛策略,利用响应值及其对敏感性参数的梯度计算敏感性。证明了在给定响应阈值下,敏感性可表示为响应梯度在该阈值条件下的期望。尽管阈值是零概率事件,可通过核平滑概念解决。所提方法可在一次蒙特卡洛运行中生成所有响应阈值的敏感性估计。在多个包含不同性质敏感性参数的算例中验证有效。随着响应梯度越来越易获取,本工作有望实现可靠性与敏感性在同一蒙特卡洛过程中同步计算。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Engineering risk is concerned with the likelihood of failure and the scenarios when it occurs. The sensitivity of failure probability to change in system parameters is relevant to risk-informed decision making. Computing sensitivity is at least one level more difficult than the probability itself, which is already challenged by a large number of input random variables, rare events and implicit nonlinear `black-box' response. Finite difference with Monte Carlo probability estimates is spurious, requiring the number of samples to grow with the reciprocal of step size to suppress estimation variance. Many existing works gain efficiency by exploiting a specific class of input variables, sensitivity parameters, or response in its exact or surrogate form. For general systems, this work presents a theory and associated Monte Carlo strategy for computing sensitivity using response values and gradients with respect to sensitivity parameters. It is shown that the sensitivity at a given response threshold can be expressed via the expectation of response gradient conditional on the threshold. Determining the expectation requires conditioning on the threshold that is a zero-probability event, but it can be resolved by the concept of kernel smoothing. The proposed method offers sensitivity estimates for all response thresholds generated in a single Monte Carlo run. It is investigated in a number of examples featuring sensitivity parameters of different nature. As response gradient becomes increasingly available, it is hoped that this work can provide the basis for embedding sensitivity calculations with reliability in the same Monte Carlo run.
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