arXiv:2510.09500cs.LG2025-10

用地理信息增强模型,跨区域预测河流温度更准。

Geo-Aware Models for Stream Temperature Prediction across Different Spatial Regions and Scales

  • 引入地理嵌入捕捉不同区域共性规律。
  • 在37年多流域数据上表现优于现有方法。
  • 适合数据稀疏地区的环境监测与决策。

理解生态系统对可持续管理地球至关重要。然而,现有物理模型和数据驱动模型常因真实环境中数据异质性而难以在不同空间区域和尺度间泛化,且训练样本有限加剧了这一问题。为此,我们提出Geo-STARS——一种用于跨流域和多尺度预测河流水温的地理感知时空建模框架。其核心创新在于引入地理感知嵌入,利用地理信息显式捕捉不同空间区域与尺度间的共享规律。进一步将该嵌入融入门控时空图神经网络,使模型能在稀疏或无观测数据条件下,学习受地理与水文背景引导的复杂时空模式。我们在覆盖美国东海岸多个流域、长达37年的实际数据集上评估了模型性能,结果表明,Geo-STARS在跨区域和跨尺度上均展现出卓越的泛化能力,显著优于当前最优基线。这凸显了其在可扩展、数据高效环境监测与决策中的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Understanding environmental ecosystems is vital for the sustainable management of our planet. However,existing physics-based and data-driven models often fail to generalize to varying spatial regions and scales due to the inherent data heterogeneity presented in real environmental ecosystems. This generalization issue is further exacerbated by the limited observation samples available for model training. To address these issues, we propose Geo-STARS, a geo-aware spatio-temporal modeling framework for predicting stream water temperature across different watersheds and spatial scales. The major innovation of Geo-STARS is the introduction of geo-aware embedding, which leverages geographic information to explicitly capture shared principles and patterns across spatial regions and scales. We further integrate the geo-aware embedding into a gated spatio-temporal graph neural network. This design enables the model to learn complex spatial and temporal patterns guided by geographic and hydrological context, even with sparse or no observational data. We evaluate Geo-STARS's efficacy in predicting stream water temperature, which is a master factor for water quality. Using real-world datasets spanning 37 years across multiple watersheds along the eastern coast of the United States, Geo-STARS demonstrates its superior generalization performance across both regions and scales, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. These results highlight the promise of Geo-STARS for scalable, data-efficient environmental monitoring and decision-making.

环境建模时空预测地理嵌入

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