自适应滚动与路由机制,提升全球天气预报精度与稳定性。
ARROW: An Adaptive Rollout and Routing Method for Global Weather Forecasting
- 多时间间隔预测+专家混合模型,捕捉不同尺度天气特征。
- 基于强化学习的自适应滚动策略,减少误差累积。
- 适合需要高精度长期天气预测的研究与应用者。
天气预报是时空数据分析的基础任务,应用广泛。现有数据驱动方法通常在固定短时区间(如6小时)建模大气动力学,并采用简单的自回归滚动进行长期预报(如5天),但存在两大局限:(1) 难以充分建模全球天气系统中的空间和多尺度时间依赖性;(2) 滚动策略难以平衡误差积累与精细大气变化捕捉。本文提出ARROW——一种用于全球天气预报的自适应滚动与多尺度时间路由方法。为应对第一项挑战,构建多时间间隔预测模型,其中共享-私有专家混合(Shared-Private Mixture-of-Experts)捕捉不同时间尺度下的共性与特异性模式,环形位置编码(Ring Positional Encoding)精准表示地球纬度的环状结构。针对第二项挑战,设计基于强化学习的自适应滚动调度器,根据当前天气状态动态选择最优预报时间间隔。实验表明,ARROW在全局天气预报任务中达到领先性能,为该领域树立了新范式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Weather forecasting is a fundamental task in spatiotemporal data analysis, with broad applications across a wide range of domains. Existing data-driven forecasting methods typically model atmospheric dynamics over a fixed short time interval, e.g., 6 hours, and rely on naive autoregression-based rollout for long-term forecasting, e.g., 5 days. However, this paradigm suffers from two key limitations: (1) it often inadequately models the spatial and multi-scale temporal dependencies inherent in global weather systems, and (2) the rollout strategy struggles to balance error accumulation with the capture of fine-grained atmospheric variations. In this study, we propose ARROW, an Adaptive-Rollout Multi-scale temporal Routing method for Global Weather Forecasting. To contend with the first limitation, we construct a multi-interval forecasting model that forecasts weather across different time intervals. Within the model, the Shared-Private Mixture-of-Experts captures both shared patterns and specific characteristics of atmospheric dynamics across different time scales, while Ring Positional Encoding accurately encodes the circular latitude structure of the Earth when representing spatial information. For the second limitation, we develop an adaptive rollout scheduler based on reinforcement learning, which selects the most suitable time interval to forecast according to the current weather state. Experimental results demonstrate that ARROW achieves state-of-the-art performance in global weather forecasting, establishing a promising paradigm in this field.
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