用机器学习模拟大气成分实时变化,提升气候模型效率与精度
Interactive Atmospheric Composition Emulation for Next-Generation Earth System Models
- 用机器学习根据排放和气象数据动态预测大气成分
- 在15个气压层内达到R²=0.92、相关系数0.96的高精度
- 可外推至训练域之外的数据,适合长期气候预测
地球系统模型(ESMs)中交互式大气成分模拟计算成本高昂,因需在每个时间步传输大量气体与气溶胶追踪器。当前资源限制了高分辨率瞬态气候模拟。如NASA GISS-ModelE3(ModelE)常采用预计算的月平均大气成分(非交互式追踪器,NINT)以降低计算量。尽管NINT显著减少计算开销,却无法捕捉气溶胶与其他气候过程的实时反馈。本文通过机器学习扩展ModelE的NINT版本,提出Smart NINT,实现对交互式排放的模拟。Smart NINT利用表面排放和气象数据作为输入,通过机器学习模型实时计算浓度,避免全物理参数化。模型采用时空架构,具有与追踪器演化空间时间依赖性相匹配的归纳偏置。输入数据处理从地表至656 hPa的前20个垂直层次(使用ModelE OMA方案),覆盖对流层内几乎全部黑碳(BCB)浓度分布,该区域受地表排放影响在短时间尺度上变化显著。评估显示,在第一气压层处达到R²=0.92、Pearson相关系数0.96的优异性能,该性能持续至第15层(808.5 hPa),之后随BCB浓度下降逐渐减弱。模型在完全不同于训练期的数据上仍保持可接受性能,这对需要可靠长期气候预测的应用至关重要。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Interactive composition simulations in Earth System Models (ESMs) are computationally expensive as they transport numerous gaseous and aerosol tracers at each timestep. This limits higher-resolution transient climate simulations with current computational resources. ESMs like NASA GISS-ModelE3 (ModelE) often use pre-computed monthly-averaged atmospheric composition concentrations (Non-Interactive Tracers or NINT) to reduce computational costs. While NINT significantly cuts computations, it fails to capture real-time feedback between aerosols and other climate processes by relying on pre-calculated fields. We extended the ModelE NINT version using machine learning (ML) to create Smart NINT, which emulates interactive emissions. Smart NINT interactively calculates concentrations using ML with surface emissions and meteorological data as inputs, avoiding full physics parameterizations. Our approach utilizes a spatiotemporal architecture that possesses a well-matched inductive bias to effectively capture the spatial and temporal dependencies in tracer evolution. Input data processed through the first 20 vertical levels (from the surface up to 656 hPa) using the ModelE OMA scheme. This vertical range covers nearly the entire BCB concentration distribution in the troposphere, where significant variation on short time horizons due to surface-level emissions is observed. Our evaluation shows excellent model performance with R-squared values of 0.92 and Pearson-r of 0.96 at the first pressure level. This high performance continues through level 15 (808.5 hPa), then gradually decreases as BCB concentrations drop significantly. The model maintains acceptable performance even when tested on data from entirely different periods outside the training domain, which is a crucial capability for climate modeling applications requiring reliable long-term projections.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。