用注意力机制增强LSTM,提升孟加拉国温降雨预测精度
Attention-Enhanced LSTM Modeling for Improved Temperature and Rainfall Forecasting in Bangladesh
- 在LSTM中加入注意力机制,捕捉气候数据的长期依赖关系
- 温度预测误差低至MSE 0.2411,降雨预测R²达0.9639
- 对气候变化趋势和区域差异更具鲁棒性,适合气候敏感行业
准确的气候预测对高度受气候变化影响的孟加拉国至关重要。现有模型难以捕捉气候数据中的长程依赖和复杂时间模式。本研究提出一种融合注意力机制的改进型长短期记忆(LSTM)模型,用于提升气温与降水动态预测。基于1901–2023年数据,气温来自NASA POWER项目,降水来自人道主义数据交换平台。模型有效捕获季节性和长期趋势,在月度预测中表现优异:温度预测的测试MSE为0.2411(归一化单位),MAE为0.3860℃,R²为0.9834,NRMSE为0.0370;降水预测的MSE为1283.67 mm²,MAE为22.91 mm,R²为0.9639,NRMSE为0.0354。在模拟气候趋势下,模型仅增加20% MSE(基线模型约增加2.2倍);在区域变异下,误差仅下降50%(基线模型下降约4.8倍)。结果表明该模型显著提升预测精度,并有助于理解孟加拉国气候变率的物理机制,支持气候敏感领域的应用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate climate forecasting is vital for Bangladesh, a region highly susceptible to climate change impacts on temperature and rainfall. Existing models often struggle to capture long-range dependencies and complex temporal patterns in climate data. This study introduces an advanced Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model integrated with an attention mechanism to enhance the prediction of temperature and rainfall dynamics. Utilizing comprehensive datasets from 1901-2023, sourced from NASA's POWER Project for temperature and the Humanitarian Data Exchange for rainfall, the model effectively captures seasonal and long-term trends. It outperforms baseline models, including XGBoost, Simple LSTM, and GRU, achieving a test MSE of 0.2411 (normalized units), MAE of 0.3860 degrees C, R^2 of 0.9834, and NRMSE of 0.0370 for temperature, and MSE of 1283.67 mm^2, MAE of 22.91 mm, R^2 of 0.9639, and NRMSE of 0.0354 for rainfall on monthly forecasts. The model demonstrates improved robustness with only a 20 percent increase in MSE under simulated climate trends (compared to an approximately 2.2-fold increase in baseline models without trend features) and a 50 percent degradation under regional variations (compared to an approximately 4.8-fold increase in baseline models without enhancements). These results highlight the model's ability to improve forecasting precision and offer potential insights into the physical processes governing climate variability in Bangladesh, supporting applications in climate-sensitive sectors.
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