arXiv:2510.11275q-bio.QMcs.LG2025-10

提出标准化癫痫发作预测评估框架,提升模型开发效率与可比性。

SeFEF: A Seizure Forecasting Evaluation Framework

  • 自动化数据标注、交叉验证与结果评估流程
  • 支持多时间窗预测,三种模型均成功实现性能验证
  • 强调模型解释需关注概率校准与个体差异,适合临床研究者使用

癫痫发作预测领域因缺乏标准化而进展缓慢,限制了模型的临床应用。本文提出一个基于Python的评估框架,旨在简化个性化预测算法的开发、评估与文档化。该框架自动完成数据标注、交叉验证划分、预测后处理、性能评估与报告生成,支持多种预测时间窗,并包含模型卡记录实现细节、训练与评估设置及性能指标。作为概念验证,实现了三种基于时序特征与发作周期性的模型。通过时间序列交叉验证和确定性与概率性指标评估,结果显示框架具有良好的灵活性。结果也表明,模型解释需关注概率缩放、校准及个体差异。尽管未正式采集可用性指标,但实证观察显示开发时间显著缩短,方法一致性提高,减少了不可控变量对结果可比性的影响。当前为单用户验证,缺乏统计分析与跨数据集复现,未来目标是公开框架以促进社区协作、实验开展与反馈收集,最终推动建立癫痫发作预测算法开发与验证的标准化方法共识。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The lack of standardization in seizure forecasting slows progress in the field and limits the clinical translation of forecasting models. In this work, we introduce a Python-based framework aimed at streamlining the development, assessment, and documentation of individualized seizure forecasting algorithms. The framework automates data labeling, cross-validation splitting, forecast post-processing, performance evaluation, and reporting. It supports various forecasting horizons and includes a model card that documents implementation details, training and evaluation settings, and performance metrics. Three different models were implemented as a proof-of-concept. The models leveraged features extracted from time series data and seizure periodicity. Model performance was assessed using time series cross-validation and key deterministic and probabilistic metrics. Implementation of the three models was successful, demonstrating the flexibility of the framework. The results also emphasize the importance of careful model interpretation due to variations in probability scaling, calibration, and subject-specific differences. Although formal usability metrics were not recorded, empirical observations suggest reduced development time and methodological consistency, minimizing unintentional variations that could affect the comparability of different approaches. As a proof-of-concept, this validation is inherently limited, relying on a single-user experiment without statistical analyses or replication across independent datasets. At this stage, our objective is to make the framework publicly available to foster community engagement, facilitate experimentation, and gather feedback. In the long term, we aim to contribute to the establishment of a consensus on a standardized methodology for the development and validation of seizure forecasting algorithms in people with epilepsy.

癫痫预测评估框架时序建模模型卡

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