arXiv:2510.11595cs.AIcs.GL2025-10被引 4

提升AI研究可复现性,助力政策制定更科学可信

Reproducibility: The New Frontier in AI Governance

  • 推动AI研究采用预注册、强统计效力与负结果发表等可复现标准
  • 当前低可复现性导致政策决策信息噪声大,风险优先级难统一
  • 适合关注AI治理、政策制定与科研诚信的研究者和决策者

AI政策制定者需构建安全、对齐且可信的治理机制,但当前信息环境信号噪声比过低,易引发监管俘获,加剧治理风险优先级的不确定性。本文指出,当前AI研究发布速度过快,加之缺乏强有力的科学标准(如可复现性不足),实质削弱了政策制定者实施有效治理的能力。我们分析了其他科学领域中的可复现性危机,建议通过预注册、提升统计功效及鼓励发表负结果等措施,改善AI研究质量,促进治理共识。尽管AI治理需具备应对社会影响的反应性,但应将可复现性协议视为核心治理工具,要求更高研究标准。代码与数据复现:https://github.com/IFMW01/reproducibility-the-new-frontier-in-ai-governance

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

AI policymakers are responsible for delivering effective governance mechanisms that can provide safe, aligned and trustworthy AI development. However, the information environment offered to policymakers is characterised by an unnecessarily low Signal-To-Noise Ratio, favouring regulatory capture and creating deep uncertainty and divides on which risks should be prioritised from a governance perspective. We posit that the current publication speeds in AI combined with the lack of strong scientific standards, via weak reproducibility protocols, effectively erodes the power of policymakers to enact meaningful policy and governance protocols. Our paper outlines how AI research could adopt stricter reproducibility guidelines to assist governance endeavours and improve consensus on the AI risk landscape. We evaluate the forthcoming reproducibility crisis within AI research through the lens of crises in other scientific domains; providing a commentary on how adopting preregistration, increased statistical power and negative result publication reproducibility protocols can enable effective AI governance. While we maintain that AI governance must be reactive due to AI's significant societal implications we argue that policymakers and governments must consider reproducibility protocols as a core tool in the governance arsenal and demand higher standards for AI research. Code to replicate data and figures: https://github.com/IFMW01/reproducibility-the-new-frontier-in-ai-governance

AI治理可复现性科研诚信

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