用大模型模拟多话题意见演化,揭示信息回音室的形成机制
MTOS: A LLM-Driven Multi-topic Opinion Simulation Framework for Exploring Echo Chamber Dynamics
- 基于大模型与记忆机制,实现跨话题意见动态更新
- 多话题相关性影响回音室强度:正相关加剧,负相关抑制
- 适合研究社交媒体极化、认知偏见的学者与政策制定者
社交媒体中意见极化、信息隔离和认知偏差引发广泛关注。现实网络中信息常涉及多个相互关联的话题,这对意见演化构成挑战,亟需能模拟跨话题互动的框架。现有基于大语言模型(LLMs)的研究多集中于单一话题,难以捕捉多话题、跨领域中的认知迁移;传统数值模型则将复杂语言态度简化为离散值,缺乏可解释性、行为一致性和多话题整合能力。为此,我们提出多话题意见模拟框架MTOS,融合多话题上下文与大模型。MTOS结合短期与长期记忆,引入多用户选择交互机制和动态话题选择策略,并采用信念衰减机制实现跨话题观点更新。我们在不同话题数量、相关类型下开展实验,并进行消融研究,评估群体极化与局部一致性等特征。结果表明:多话题设置显著改变极化趋势——正相关话题加剧回音室,负相关话题抑制其发展,无关话题则通过资源竞争缓解回音室效应。相比数值模型,基于大模型的智能体能更真实地模拟动态意见变化,复现新闻文本的语言特征,捕捉复杂人类推理,提升模拟可解释性与系统稳定性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The polarization of opinions, information segregation, and cognitive biases on social media have attracted significant academic attention. In real-world networks, information often spans multiple interrelated topics, posing challenges for opinion evolution and highlighting the need for frameworks that simulate interactions among topics. Existing studies based on large language models (LLMs) focus largely on single topics, limiting the capture of cognitive transfer in multi-topic, cross-domain contexts. Traditional numerical models, meanwhile, simplify complex linguistic attitudes into discrete values, lacking interpretability, behavioral consistency, and the ability to integrate multiple topics. To address these issues, we propose Multi-topic Opinion Simulation (MTOS), a social simulation framework integrating multi-topic contexts with LLMs. MTOS leverages LLMs alongside short-term and long-term memory, incorporates multiple user-selection interaction mechanisms and dynamic topic-selection strategies, and employs a belief decay mechanism to enable perspective updates across topics. We conduct extensive experiments on MTOS, varying topic numbers, correlation types, and performing ablation studies to assess features such as group polarization and local consistency. Results show that multi-topic settings significantly alter polarization trends: positively correlated topics amplify echo chambers, negatively correlated topics inhibit them, and irrelevant topics also mitigate echo chamber effects through resource competition. Compared with numerical models, LLM-based agents realistically simulate dynamic opinion changes, reproduce linguistic features of news texts, and capture complex human reasoning, improving simulation interpretability and system stability.
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