arXiv:2510.13030cs.LG2025-10被引 4

用AI连接高精度与简化模型,提升气候模拟准确性并解释原因。

Bridging Idealized and Operational Models: An Explainable AI Framework for Earth System Emulators

  • 通过重构隐空间数据同化,融合不同复杂度模型优势
  • 显著修正CMIP6对厄尔尼诺时空模式的偏差,提升全球模拟精度
  • 提供可解释的物理机制,适合气候建模与数字孪生研究者

计算机模型是理解地球系统的关键工具。尽管高分辨率业务模型取得了诸多成功,但在模拟极端事件和统计分布方面仍存在持续偏差。相比之下,粗粒度理想化模型能隔离基本过程,并可精确校准以准确刻画特定动力学和统计特征。然而,不同模型因学科壁垒而相互孤立。本文利用不同复杂度模型的互补优势,提出一种可解释的人工智能框架,用于地球系统模拟器。该框架通过重构的潜在空间数据同化技术,特别适用于利用理想化模型稀疏输出。所生成的桥梁模型继承了业务模型的高分辨率和全变量特性,同时通过理想化模型的针对性改进实现全局精度提升。关键在于,AI机制提供了明确的改进依据,突破黑箱修正,实现计算高效的物理解释性,支持物理辅助的数字孪生与不确定性量化。我们通过显著修正CMIP6对厄尔尼诺时空模式的模拟偏差,验证了该框架的效力,其依赖于统计准确的理想化模型。本工作还强调推动理想化模型发展及促进建模社区间交流的重要性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Computer models are indispensable tools for understanding the Earth system. While high-resolution operational models have achieved many successes, they exhibit persistent biases, particularly in simulating extreme events and statistical distributions. In contrast, coarse-grained idealized models isolate fundamental processes and can be precisely calibrated to excel in characterizing specific dynamical and statistical features. However, different models remain siloed by disciplinary boundaries. By leveraging the complementary strengths of models of varying complexity, we develop an explainable AI framework for Earth system emulators. It bridges the model hierarchy through a reconfigured latent data assimilation technique, uniquely suited to exploit the sparse output from the idealized models. The resulting bridging model inherits the high resolution and comprehensive variables of operational models while achieving global accuracy enhancements through targeted improvements from idealized models. Crucially, the mechanism of AI provides a clear rationale for these advancements, moving beyond black-box correction to physically insightful understanding in a computationally efficient framework that enables effective physics-assisted digital twins and uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate its power by significantly correcting biases in CMIP6 simulations of El Niño spatiotemporal patterns, leveraging statistically accurate idealized models. This work also highlights the importance of pushing idealized model development and advancing communication between modeling communities.

气候模拟可解释AI数字孪生模型融合

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。