用卫星数据训练全球高分辨率降雨预测模型,1分钟出结果。
An Operational Deep Learning System for Satellite-Based High-Resolution Global Nowcasting
- 融合卫星、降水任务和数值预报数据,端到端训练全球模型
- 0.05°分辨率、15分钟间隔,12小时预报精度显著超越传统方法
- 可在数据稀疏地区实用,已部署于谷歌搜索服务数百万用户
降水临近预报(未来几小时内)对频繁遭遇强风暴的全球南方脆弱社区至关重要。及时预报可挽救生命与生计。传统数值天气预报(NWP)存在延迟高、时空分辨率低、全球精度差距大等问题。基于机器学习的临近预报方法虽在北方广泛应用,但因雷达覆盖稀疏难以推广至全球南方。我们提出Global MetNet,一个面向全球的实时机器学习临近预报模型。它利用全球降水观测计划(CORRA)数据、静止卫星数据及全球NWP数据,实现未来12小时的降水预测。模型空间分辨率达约0.05°(~5km),时间间隔为15分钟。Global MetNet显著优于行业标准的小时级预报,在更广泛区域提供可用预报。在数据稀疏区的表现甚至超过美国最先进高分辨率NWP模型。经地面雷达与卫星数据验证,其关键成功指数(CSI)和分数技巧评分(FSS)在所有降水强度与预报时效下均有显著提升。模型生成预报耗时不足1分钟,具备实时部署能力,目前已上线谷歌搜索,服务数百万用户。本工作是缩小全球预报质量差距、整合稀疏高分辨率卫星观测的关键一步。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Precipitation nowcasting, which predicts rainfall up to a few hours ahead, is a critical tool for vulnerable communities in the Global South frequently exposed to intense, rapidly developing storms. Timely forecasts provide a crucial window to protect lives and livelihoods. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods suffer from high latency, low spatial and temporal resolution, and significant gaps in accuracy across the world. Recent machine learning-based nowcasting methods, common in the Global North, cannot be extended to the Global South due to extremely sparse radar coverage. We present Global MetNet, an operational global machine learning nowcasting model. It leverages the Global Precipitation Mission's CORRA dataset, geostationary satellite data, and global NWP data to predict precipitation for the next 12 hours. The model operates at a high resolution of approximately 0.05° (~5km) spatially and 15 minutes temporally. Global MetNet significantly outperforms industry-standard hourly forecasts and achieves significantly higher skill, making forecasts useful over a much larger area of the world than previously available. Our model demonstrates better skill in data-sparse regions than even the best high-resolution NWP models achieve in the US. Validated using ground radar and satellite data, it shows significant improvements across key metrics like the critical success index and fractions skill score for all precipitation rates and lead times. Crucially, our model generates forecasts in under a minute, making it readily deployable for real-time applications. It is already deployed for millions of users on Google Search. This work represents a key step in reducing global disparities in forecast quality and integrating sparse, high-resolution satellite observations into weather forecasting.
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