用深度学习解决高维期权定价中的最优停止问题,直接给出紧致上界。
DeepMartingale: Duality of the Optimal Stopping Problem with Expressivity and High-Dimensional Hedging
- 基于鞅表示的纯对偶方法,直接优化参数化鞅类。
- 理论证明上界收敛,且网络规模与维度无关,突破维数灾难。
- 可生成可扩展的深度对冲策略,适合高维金融衍生品计算。
我们提出DeepMartingale,一种用于连续时间模型下离散监控最优停止问题对偶公式的深度学习框架。利用鞅表示,该方法实现纯对偶过程,直接在参数化鞅类上进行优化,无需任何原始信息或Snell包络近似,即可在高维情形下得到可计算且紧致的对偶上界。我们在一阶和二阶矩损失下证明了上界收敛性。关键贡献在于一个表达能力定理:仅需大小不超过 $\tilde{c} d^{\tilde{q}}\varepsilon^{-\tilde{r}}$ 的神经网络,即可将真实价值函数逼近到任意精度 $\varepsilon$,其中常数与维度 $d$ 及精度 $\varepsilon$ 无关,从而避免了维数灾难。该表达能力也意味着可扩展性,其理论为架构设计、训练设置及对冲策略再平衡频率选择提供了指导。所学鞅表示进一步产生一种实用且可扩展的深度对冲策略。在高维Bermudan期权基准测试中,数值实验验证了收敛性、表达能力、可扩展训练以及上界与对冲性能的稳定性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We propose \textit{DeepMartingale}, a deep-learning framework for the dual formulation of discrete-monitoring optimal stopping problems under continuous-time models. Leveraging a martingale representation, our method implements a \emph{pure-dual} procedure that directly optimizes over a parameterized class of martingales, producing computable and tight \emph{dual upper bounds} for the value function in high-dimensional settings without requiring any primal information or Snell-envelope approximation. We prove convergence of the resulting upper bounds under mild assumptions for both first- and second-moment losses. A key contribution is an expressivity theorem showing that \textit{DeepMartingale} can approximate the true value function to any prescribed accuracy $\varepsilon$ using neural networks of size at most $\tilde{c} d^{\tilde{q}}\varepsilon^{-\tilde{r}}$, with constants independent of the dimension $d$ and accuracy $\varepsilon$, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality. Since expressivity in this setting translates into scalability, our theory also motivates estimating the dimension scaling law to guide architecture design and the training setup in deep learning-based numerical computation and the choice of rebalancing frequency for the related hedging strategy. The learned martingale representation further yields a practical and dimension-scalable \emph{deep delta hedging strategy}. Numerical experiments on high-dimensional Bermudan option benchmarks confirm convergence, expressivity, scalable training, and the stability of the resulting upper bounds and hedging performance.
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