融合时序数据与贝叶斯方法,提升电网系统识别对定向虚假数据的抗攻击能力。
Cyber-Resilient System Identification for Power Grid through Bayesian Integration
- 通过贝叶斯融合快照法与时序模型,利用历史数据建模正常行为。
- 在定向攻击下误差降低超70%,且能定位异常数据。
- 算法接近线性扩展,在笔记本上每步处理时间小于1分钟。
电力系统在不断演变的网络威胁背景下亟需实时态势感知。基于快照的系统识别方法虽可准确估计状态与拓扑,但面对现代交互式、针对性的虚假数据攻击时难以检测,严重影响精度。本文提出一种结合快照法与时间序列模型的贝叶斯集成方法,增强对随机与定向虚假数据的网络韧性。采用基于距离的时间序列模型,利用不同拓扑变化引发的历史数据分布差异。将历史数据中捕获的正常行为通过贝叶斯框架融入系统识别,使结果对定向攻击更具鲁棒性。实验在混合随机异常(坏数据、拓扑错误)和定向虚假数据注入攻击(FDIA)下验证:1)网络韧性显著提升,在FDIA下估计误差降低超70%;2)可有效报警并定位异常数据;3)几乎线性可扩展,大型2,383节点系统在笔记本CPU上每时间步处理耗时小于1分钟,与快照基线相当。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Power grids increasingly need real-time situational awareness under the ever-evolving cyberthreat landscape. Advances in snapshot-based system identification approaches have enabled accurately estimating states and topology from a snapshot of measurement data, under random bad data and topology errors. However, modern interactive, targeted false data can stay undetectable to these methods, and significantly compromise estimation accuracy. This work advances system identification that combines snapshot-based method with time-series model via Bayesian Integration, to advance cyber resiliency against both random and targeted false data. Using a distance-based time-series model, this work can leverage historical data of different distributions induced by changes in grid topology and other settings. The normal system behavior captured from historical data is integrated into system identification through a Bayesian treatment, to make solutions robust to targeted false data. We experiment on mixed random anomalies (bad data, topology error) and targeted false data injection attack (FDIA) to demonstrate our method's 1) cyber resilience: achieving over 70% reduction in estimation error under FDIA; 2) anomalous data identification: being able to alarm and locate anomalous data; 3) almost linear scalability: achieving comparable speed with the snapshot-based baseline, both taking <1min per time tick on the large 2,383-bus system using a laptop CPU.
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