arXiv:2510.14711stat.MLcs.LG2025-10被引 5

提出新型核方法,快速准确检验概率模型校准性。

Fast and Scalable Score-Based Kernel Calibration Tests

  • 基于得分构造新核函数,无需密度样本即可估计
  • 控制第一类错误,避免昂贵期望近似
  • 适合需要高效校准验证的机器学习应用

我们提出了基于核的校准条件斯坦离散度检验(KCCSD检验),一种用于评估具有明确定义得分的概率模型校准性的非参数、基于核的方法。与以往方法不同,该检验避免了可能代价高昂的期望近似,同时保证了第一类错误的控制。通过使用一类新的基于得分的概率核函数,可无需概率密度样本进行估计,并采用条件拟合优度准则来构建KCCSD检验的U统计量,实现了上述改进。我们在多种合成场景下验证了该检验的性质。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We introduce the Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy test (KCCSD test), a non-parametric, kernel-based test for assessing the calibration of probabilistic models with well-defined scores. In contrast to previous methods, our test avoids the need for possibly expensive expectation approximations while providing control over its type-I error. We achieve these improvements by using a new family of kernels for score-based probabilities that can be estimated without probability density samples, and by using a conditional goodness-of-fit criterion for the KCCSD test's U-statistic. We demonstrate the properties of our test on various synthetic settings.

概率校准核方法统计检验

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