arXiv:2510.14814cs.LG2025-10被引 3

提出统一框架ShifTS,同时应对时间序列的时序漂移与概念漂移问题。

Tackling Time-Series Forecasting Generalization via Mitigating Concept Drift

  • 设计软注意力机制,从历史与未来序列中提取不变模式。
  • 在多个数据集上显著提升模型预测准确率,优于现有方法。
  • 适合需要长期稳定预测的工业级时间序列场景。

时间序列预测在现实应用中广泛存在。由于时间序列数据具有动态性,模型需应对随时间变化的分布偏移。本文首次识别出时间序列中的两类分布偏移:概念漂移与时序漂移。尽管现有研究多聚焦于时序漂移,针对概念漂移的方法仍相对不足。为此,我们提出一种软注意力机制,从回溯序列和预测时域中寻找不变模式。同时强调,应先缓解时序漂移再处理概念漂移。基于此,我们提出ShifTS——一个与方法无关的统一框架,先解决时序漂移,再应对概念漂移。大量实验表明,ShifTS能持续提升多种模型的预测精度,在多个数据集上优于现有概念漂移、时序漂移及综合基线方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time-series forecasting finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time series data, it is important for time-series forecasting models to handle potential distribution shifts over time. In this paper, we initially identify two types of distribution shifts in time series: concept drift and temporal shift. We acknowledge that while existing studies primarily focus on addressing temporal shift issues in time series forecasting, designing proper concept drift methods for time series forecasting has received comparatively less attention. Motivated by the need to address potential concept drift, while conventional concept drift methods via invariant learning face certain challenges in time-series forecasting, we propose a soft attention mechanism that finds invariant patterns from both lookback and horizon time series. Additionally, we emphasize the critical importance of mitigating temporal shifts as a preliminary to addressing concept drift. In this context, we introduce ShifTS, a method-agnostic framework designed to tackle temporal shift first and then concept drift within a unified approach. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of ShifTS in consistently enhancing the forecasting accuracy of agnostic models across multiple datasets, and outperforming existing concept drift, temporal shift, and combined baselines.

时间序列概念漂移时序预测不变学习

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。