arXiv:2510.14983cs.LGcs.HC2025-10

将电网负荷预测从区域聚合扩展到单个节点,提升准确性与可操作性。

Extending Load Forecasting from Zonal Aggregates to Individual Nodes for Transmission System Operators

  • 构建分层系统,用可解释的模型逐步实现节点级预测
  • 节点负荷预测准确率显著提升,误差诊断更精准
  • 支持并行化单模型流程,适合调度员日常使用

可持续能源发展加剧了电力负荷的不确定性,威胁局部电网可靠性。传输系统运营商(TSOs)需将负荷预测从当前的区域聚合扩展至单个节点,以提升空间分辨率。然而,节点负荷预测精度较低,且需处理大量独立预测任务,对控制室人员的风险评估构成挑战。本文与某TSO合作,设计了一套多层级小时级日前负荷预测系统。基于独特的区域与节点净负荷大规模数据集,我们实验评估了系统各组件:首先,开发了可解释且可扩展的预测模型,支持TSOs渐进式引入节点预测;其次,评估了应对节点负荷异质性与波动性的方案,在性能与稳定性间权衡;第三,实现了全并行化的单模型预测工作流。结果表明,区域预测在准确性和可解释性上均有提升,节点预测则取得显著改进。实际应用中,该系统使操作员能以更高信心和精度调整预测,并精确诊断以往难以察觉的误差。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The reliability of local power grid infrastructure is challenged by sustainable energy developments increasing electric load uncertainty. Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need load forecasts of higher spatial resolution, extending current forecasting operations from zonal aggregates to individual nodes. However, nodal loads are less accurate to forecast and require a large number of individual forecasts, which are hard to manage for the human experts assessing risks in the control room's daily operations (operator). In collaboration with a TSO, we design a multi-level system that meets the needs of operators for hourly day-ahead load forecasting. Utilizing a uniquely extensive dataset of zonal and nodal net loads, we experimentally evaluate our system components. First, we develop an interpretable and scalable forecasting model that allows for TSOs to gradually extend zonal operations to include nodal forecasts. Second, we evaluate solutions to address the heterogeneity and volatility of nodal load, subject to a trade-off. Third, our system is manageable with a fully parallelized single-model forecasting workflow. Our results show accuracy and interpretability improvements for zonal forecasts, and substantial improvements for nodal forecasts. In practice, our multi-level forecasting system allows operators to adjust forecasts with unprecedented confidence and accuracy, and to diagnose otherwise opaque errors precisely.

负荷预测电网运营可解释性节点级

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