arXiv:2510.14986q-fin.PMcs.AI2025-10被引 12

通过识别市场波动率状态,实现分行业动态调仓,提升投资组合稳定性。

RegimeFolio: A Regime Aware ML System for Sectoral Portfolio Optimization in Dynamic Markets

  • 基于VIX构建市场状态分类器,动态划分高/低波动周期
  • 分行业使用集成学习预测收益,结合收缩估计的协方差优化配置
  • 在美股大盘股上实现137%累计收益,最大回撤降低12%

金融市场具有显著非平稳性,波动率状态的变化会改变资产间的联动关系与收益分布。传统投资组合优化方法多基于平稳性或忽略状态假设,在动态市场中表现不佳。为此,我们提出RegimeFolio,一种具备状态感知能力且针对行业特化的框架。它不同于DeepVol、DRL等无状态模型,通过显式划分波动率状态,结合分行业集成预测(随机森林、梯度提升)与收缩正则化协方差的动态均值-方差优化,实现与当前市场状态对齐的决策。该系统包含三部分:(i) 基于VIX的可解释市场状态分类器;(ii) 分状态、分行业的集成学习器,捕捉条件收益结构;(iii) 使用收缩估计协方差的动态均值-方差优化器。我们在2020至2024年间34只美国大盘股上验证该框架,获得137%累计回报、1.17夏普比率,最大回撤降低12%,预测准确率较传统及先进机器学习基准提升15%至20%。结果表明,显式建模波动率状态能显著增强预测与配置的鲁棒性,支持更可靠的实盘决策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial markets are inherently non-stationary, with shifting volatility regimes that alter asset co-movements and return distributions. Standard portfolio optimization methods, typically built on stationarity or regime-agnostic assumptions, struggle to adapt to such changes. To address these challenges, we propose RegimeFolio, a novel regime-aware and sector-specialized framework that, unlike existing regime-agnostic models such as DeepVol and DRL optimizers, integrates explicit volatility regime segmentation with sector-specific ensemble forecasting and adaptive mean-variance allocation. This modular architecture ensures forecasts and portfolio decisions remain aligned with current market conditions, enhancing robustness and interpretability in dynamic markets. RegimeFolio combines three components: (i) an interpretable VIX-based classifier for market regime detection; (ii) regime and sector-specific ensemble learners (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting) to capture conditional return structures; and (iii) a dynamic mean-variance optimizer with shrinkage-regularized covariance estimates for regime-aware allocation. We evaluate RegimeFolio on 34 large cap U.S. equities from 2020 to 2024. The framework achieves a cumulative return of 137 percent, a Sharpe ratio of 1.17, a 12 percent lower maximum drawdown, and a 15 to 20 percent improvement in forecast accuracy compared to conventional and advanced machine learning benchmarks. These results show that explicitly modeling volatility regimes in predictive learning and portfolio allocation enhances robustness and leads to more dependable decision-making in real markets.

投资组合优化状态感知机器学习量化金融

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