arXiv:2510.15284cs.LGmath.ST2025-10被引 1

用小集合+神经网络修正,提升数据同化精度且不增加计算负担

Small Ensemble-based Data Assimilation: A Machine Learning-Enhanced Data Assimilation Method with Limited Ensemble Size

  • 小集合做初估,神经网络学修正项
  • 相同集合大小下,精度显著优于传统方法
  • 适配多种模型,适合资源受限场景

基于集合的数据同化(DA)方法因能处理非线性动态问题而日益流行,但其在分析精度与计算效率之间存在权衡:更大的集合规模虽能提高精度,却带来更高的计算成本。本文提出一种新型机器学习增强型数据同化方法,将传统的集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)与全连接神经网络(FCNN)结合。具体而言,采用较小的集合规模通过EnKF生成初步但次优的分析状态,再利用FCNN学习并预测这些状态的修正项,从而缓解因集合规模有限导致的性能下降。通过洛伦兹系统和非线性海洋波场模拟的数值实验验证,结果一致表明,所提出的EnKF-FCNN方法在相同集合规模下,分析精度显著优于传统EnKF,且额外计算开销可忽略不计。此外,该方法可通过耦合不同模型或替换其他集合类同化方法,适应多样化应用场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) methods have become increasingly popular due to their inherent ability to address nonlinear dynamic problems. However, these methods often face a trade-off between analysis accuracy and computational efficiency, as larger ensemble sizes required for higher accuracy also lead to greater computational cost. In this study, we propose a novel machine learning-based data assimilation approach that combines the traditional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a fully connected neural network (FCNN). Specifically, our method uses a relatively small ensemble size to generate preliminary yet suboptimal analysis states via EnKF. A FCNN is then employed to learn and predict correction terms for these states, thereby mitigating the performance degradation induced by the limited ensemble size. We evaluate the performance of our proposed EnKF-FCNN method through numerical experiments involving Lorenz systems and nonlinear ocean wave field simulations. The results consistently demonstrate that the new method achieves higher accuracy than traditional EnKF with the same ensemble size, while incurring negligible additional computational cost. Moreover, the EnKF-FCNN method is adaptable to diverse applications through coupling with different models and the use of alternative ensemble-based DA methods.

数据同化机器学习神经网络集合滤波

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