arXiv:2510.15390stat.MLcs.LG2025-10

提出高效递归推断方法,实现多输出非线性系统的实时精准建模。

Recursive Inference for Heterogeneous Multi-Output GP State-Space Models with Arbitrary Moment Matching

  • 为各输出维度设计异构核,支持不同核类型与参数,提升建模表达力。
  • 在强非线性与高噪声下,精度超当前最优在线方法70%,速度提升20倍。
  • 统一框架兼容EKF、UKF等滤波方法,适用于复杂动态系统在线学习。

准确学习系统动力学对工程中的先进控制与决策日益重要。然而,真实系统常具有多通道与高度非线性转移动态,挑战传统建模方法。为实现在线学习,本文将系统建模为高斯过程状态空间模型(GPSSM),并开发一种递归学习方法。主要贡献有三:第一,设计异构多输出核,使各输出维度可独立选择核类型、超参数和输入变量,增强多维动态建模的表达能力;第二,提出诱导点管理算法,通过各输出维度独立选择与剪枝,提升计算效率;第三,推导统一的递归推断框架,支持包括扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)、无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)和假设密度滤波(ADF)在内的通用矩匹配方法,可在强非线性与显著噪声下实现精确学习。在合成与真实数据集上的实验表明,该方法仅需1/100的运行时间即可达到当前最优离线GPSSM的精度,且在重噪声条件下,精度比当前最优在线方法高出约70%,同时仅需其1/20的运行时间。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate learning of system dynamics is becoming increasingly crucial for advanced control and decision-making in engineering. However, real-world systems often exhibit multiple channels and highly nonlinear transition dynamics, challenging traditional modeling methods. To enable online learning for these systems, this paper formulates the system as Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) and develops a recursive learning method. The main contributions are threefold. First, a heterogeneous multi-output kernel is designed, allowing each output dimension to adopt distinct kernel types, hyperparameters, and input variables, improving expressiveness in multi-dimensional dynamics learning. Second, an inducing-point management algorithm enhances computational efficiency through independent selection and pruning for each output dimension. Third, a unified recursive inference framework for GPSSMs is derived, supporting general moment matching approaches, including the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), and assumed density filtering (ADF), enabling accurate learning under strong nonlinearity and significant noise. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed method matches the accuracy of SOTA offline GPSSMs with only 1/100 of the runtime, and surpasses SOTA online GPSSMs by around 70% in accuracy under heavy noise while using only 1/20 of the runtime.

高斯过程状态空间模型在线学习非线性系统

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