arXiv:2510.15691q-fin.CPcs.AI2025-10被引 1

融合量化因子与LLM新闻表示,提升股票收益预测精度

Exploring the Synergy of Quantitative Factors and Newsflow Representations from Large Language Models for Stock Return Prediction

  • 构建多模态融合框架,整合量化因子与LLM生成的新闻表示
  • 混合模型自适应组合单模态与融合预测,显著提升回测表现
  • 提出解耦训练策略缓解混合模型训练不稳问题,适合量化投资研究者

在量化投资中,收益预测支持股票选择、组合优化与风险管理。量化因子(如估值、质量、成长)捕捉股票特征,非结构化数据(如新闻、财报文本)因大语言模型(LLMs)进展而日益受关注。本文探究多模态因子与新闻流在收益预测中的有效建模方法。首先,提出一个融合学习框架,从量化因子与LLM生成的新闻表示中学习统一表征,比较三种架构:表示拼接、相加与注意力融合。其次,针对融合学习在实证中表现受限的问题,探索可自适应组合单模态与融合预测的混合模型,并引入具有理论依据的解耦训练方法以缓解训练不稳定性。最后,在真实投资样本上的实验揭示了因子与新闻多模态建模的有效性,为股票收益预测与选股提供新思路。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In quantitative investing, return prediction supports various tasks, including stock selection, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Quantitative factors, such as valuation, quality, and growth, capture various characteristics of stocks. Unstructured data, like news and transcripts, has attracted growing attention, driven by recent advances in large language models (LLMs). This paper examines effective methods for leveraging multimodal factors and newsflow in return prediction and stock selection. First, we introduce a fusion learning framework to learn a unified representation from factors and newsflow representations generated by an LLM. Within this framework, we compare three methods of different architectural complexities: representation combination, representation summation, and attentive representations. Next, building on the limitation of fusion learning observed in empirical comparison, we explore the mixture model that adaptively combines predictions made by single modalities and their fusion. To mitigate the training instability of the mixture model, we introduce a decoupled training approach with theoretical insights. Finally, our experiments on real investment universes yield several insights into effective multimodal modeling of factors and news for stock return prediction and selection.

量化投资多模态融合大模型应用股票预测

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