用卫星观测空间的AI数据同化框架,实现更精准的全球天气预报。
DAWP: A framework for global observation forecasting via Data Assimilation and Weather Prediction in satellite observation space
- 通过AIDA模块融合不规则卫星观测数据,构建完整观测空间基础。
- 引入时空解耦变压器与跨区域边界条件,支持像素级全球预报。
- 无需依赖再分析数据,适合高分辨率气象预测与降水建模场景。
天气预测对人类社会至关重要,人工智能天气预测(AIWP)在使用再分析数据训练后取得了显著进展。然而,依赖再分析数据导致数据同化偏差和时间不一致等问题。为摆脱这一限制,观测预报成为变革性范式。其核心挑战在于如何在不同测量系统间学习不规则高分辨率观测数据的时空动态,制约了AIWP的设计与预测能力。为此,我们提出DAWP框架,通过人工智能数据同化(AIDA)模块初始化,使AIWP可在完整观测空间运行。AIDA模块采用掩码多模态自编码器(MMAE),结合掩码ViT-VAE编码的卫星观测标记进行同化。对于AIWP,我们引入时空解耦变压器与跨区域边界条件(CBC),学习观测空间中的动态,实现基于子图像的全局观测预报。全面实验表明,AIDA初始化显著提升AIWP的滚动预测性能与效率。此外,DAWP在全局降水预报中展现出良好应用潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Weather prediction is a critical task for human society, where impressive progress has been made by training artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) methods with reanalysis data. However, reliance on reanalysis data limits the AIWPs with shortcomings, including data assimilation biases and temporal discrepancies. To liberate AIWPs from the reanalysis data, observation forecasting emerges as a transformative paradigm for weather prediction. One of the key challenges in observation forecasting is learning spatiotemporal dynamics across disparate measurement systems with irregular high-resolution observation data, which constrains the design and prediction of AIWPs. To this end, we propose our DAWP as an innovative framework to enable AIWPs to operate in a complete observation space by initialization with an artificial intelligence data assimilation (AIDA) module. Specifically, our AIDA module applies a mask multi-modality autoencoder(MMAE)for assimilating irregular satellite observation tokens encoded by mask ViT-VAEs. For AIWP, we introduce a spatiotemporal decoupling transformer with cross-regional boundary conditioning (CBC), learning the dynamics in observation space, to enable sub-image-based global observation forecasting. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that AIDA initialization significantly improves the roll out and efficiency of AIWP. Additionally, we show that DAWP holds promising potential to be applied in global precipitation forecasting.
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