arXiv:2510.16008q-fin.STcs.LG2025-10

用卷积注意力预测赛马盘口价格,提升短期交易准确率。

Convolutional Attention in Betting Exchange Markets

  • 引入新型卷积注意力机制处理多变量时间序列数据
  • 在贝特法尔赛马盘口上实现分类准确率提升
  • 适合量化交易、金融时序建模研究者参考

本研究提出一种基于市场深度数据的短期价格走势预测系统,应用于全球领先的博彩交易所Betfair的英国胜出赛马市场,聚焦于开赛前阶段。通过创新的卷积注意力机制与递归神经网络、二维卷积循环网络层结合,并设计适用于多变量时间序列的新型填充方法。所有模型均采用标准监督学习流程,经大量预处理与数据分析后训练并测试于新数据。研究构建了完整的端到端自动化特征工程与市场交互框架。关键发现为:所有提出的创新均显著提升分类任务性能指标,推动了卷积注意力机制与填充方法在多变量时间序列问题中的应用边界。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study presents the implementation of a short-term forecasting system for price movements in exchange markets, using market depth data and a systematic procedure to enable a fully automated trading system. The case study focuses on the UK to Win Horse Racing market during the pre-live stage on the world's leading betting exchange, Betfair. Innovative convolutional attention mechanisms are introduced and applied to multiple recurrent neural networks and bi-dimensional convolutional recurrent neural network layers. Additionally, a novel padding method for convolutional layers is proposed, specifically designed for multivariate time series processing. These innovations are thoroughly detailed, along with their execution process. The proposed architectures follow a standard supervised learning approach, involving model training and subsequent testing on new data, which requires extensive pre-processing and data analysis. The study also presents a complete end-to-end framework for automated feature engineering and market interactions using the developed models in production. The key finding of this research is that all proposed innovations positively impact the performance metrics of the classification task under examination, thereby advancing the current state-of-the-art in convolutional attention mechanisms and padding methods applied to multivariate time series problems.

时序预测注意力机制量化交易

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