让传感器选址和洪水预测直接服务于应急决策,减少错误判断。
Decision-focused Sensing and Forecasting for Adaptive and Rapid Flood Response: An Implicit Learning Approach
- 用可微分方法自动选传感器位置,兼顾预算限制
- 结合隐式最大似然估计,实现离散配置的梯度优化
- 针对具体救灾任务设计可微决策模块,提升响应效率
及时可靠的决策对洪水应急响应至关重要,但受限于预算和数据获取,情景感知能力往往不足。传统洪水管理系统依赖现场传感器校准遥感洪水深度预测模型,并据此优化应急决策。然而这些方法通常采用固定、与决策无关的策略选择传感器位置(如最大化信息增益)和训练模型(如最小化平均预测误差),忽视了相同传感增益和平均误差可能导致不同决策结果的问题。为此,我们提出一种新型决策导向框架,通过智能选择现场传感器部署位置并优化时空洪水重建与预测模型,以最小化下游应急决策的后悔值。整个端到端流程包含上下文评分网络、在硬性预算约束下的可微传感器选择模块、时空洪水重建与预测模型,以及针对特定任务目标设计的可微决策层。核心创新在于引入隐式最大似然估计(I-MLE),实现对离散传感器配置的梯度学习,并使用概率决策头支持多种受约束灾害响应任务的可微逼近。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Timely and reliable decision-making is vital for flood emergency response, yet it remains severely hindered by limited and imprecise situational awareness due to various budget and data accessibility constraints. Traditional flood management systems often rely on in-situ sensors to calibrate remote sensing-based large-scale flood depth forecasting models, and further take flood depth estimates to optimize flood response decisions. However, these approaches often take fixed, decision task-agnostic strategies to decide where to put in-situ sensors (e.g., maximize overall information gain) and train flood forecasting models (e.g., minimize average forecasting errors), but overlook that systems with the same sensing gain and average forecasting errors may lead to distinct decisions. To address this, we introduce a novel decision-focused framework that strategically selects locations for in-situ sensor placement and optimize spatio-temporal flood forecasting models to optimize downstream flood response decision regrets. Our end-to-end pipeline integrates four components: a contextual scoring network, a differentiable sensor selection module under hard budget constraints, a spatio-temporal flood reconstruction and forecasting model, and a differentiable decision layer tailored to task-specific objectives. Central to our approach is the incorporation of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (I-MLE) to enable gradient-based learning over discrete sensor configurations, and probabilistic decision heads to enable differentiable approximation to various constrained disaster response tasks.
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