arXiv:2510.16021cs.LGecon.GN2025-10

用强化学习优化光伏日内交易,降低不平衡成本。

Feature-driven reinforcement learning for photovoltaic in continuous intraday trading

  • 设计修正奖励机制,避免高电价下策略失效。
  • 在四个北欧区域实现显著盈利提升,跨区策略效果良好。
  • 模型可解释性强,适合数据少的新市场快速部署。

连续日内电力交易使光伏运营商能随预测更新降低不平衡结算成本。但可行的交易策略需同时应对预测不确定性、日内电价、流动性及光伏不平衡暴露的非对称经济特性。本文提出一种面向北欧市场的特征驱动强化学习(FDRL)框架。核心方法是引入相对于不交易基准的修正奖励,消除政策无关噪声,防止强化学习在高电价环境下偏向消极策略。该框架结合线性主导策略与闭式执行代理,实现高效可解释训练。在2021–2024年严格走时评估中,覆盖四个北欧投标区(DK1, DK2, SE3, SE4),该方法在所有区域均显著优于仅基于现货的基准策略。组合投资实验表明,跨区聚合策略可媲美区域专属模型;迁移学习结果揭示市场存在两簇结构,且在本地数据有限的新区域也能有效部署。该框架提供了一种可解释且计算高效的减低成本方案,并为不同市场设计下的跨区扩展策略提供指导。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Sequential intraday electricity trading allows photovoltaic (PV) operators to reduce imbalance settlement costs as forecasts improve throughout the day. Yet deployable trading policies must jointly handle forecast uncertainty, intraday prices, liquidity, and the asymmetric economics of PV imbalance exposure. This paper proposes a feature-driven reinforcement learning (FDRL) framework for intraday PV trading in the Nordic market. Its main methodological contribution is a corrected reward that evaluates performance relative to a no-trade baseline, removing policy-independent noise that can otherwise push reinforcement learning toward inactive policies in high-price regimes. The framework combines this objective with a predominantly linear policy and a closed-form execution surrogate for efficient, interpretable training. In a strict walk-forward evaluation over 2021-2024 across four Nordic bidding zones (DK1, DK2, SE3, SE4), the method delivers statistically significant profit improvements over the spot-only baseline in every zone. Portfolio experiments show that a pooled cross-zone policy can match zone-specific models, while transfer-learning results indicate a two-cluster market structure and effective deployment in new zones with limited local data. The proposed framework offers an interpretable and computationally practical way to reduce imbalance costs, while the transfer results provide guidance for scaling strategies across bidding zones with different market designs.

强化学习光伏交易日内市场迁移学习

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