arXiv:2510.16376math.OCcs.AI2025-10NeurIPS被引 2

让轨迹优化自动学习不确定性,实时调整预测范围以提升安全性和性能。

Conformal Prediction in The Loop: A Feedback-Based Uncertainty Model for Trajectory Optimization

  • 基于已实现轨迹反馈调整风险,动态更新预测区域
  • 在真实轨迹上持续优化,提升整体任务安全性与性能
  • 适用于自动驾驶等需在线决策的高风险场景

置信预测(CP)是一种可提供覆盖率保证的不确定性建模工具,广泛用于不确定环境下的轨迹优化。然而,现有方法多采用单向序列机制,决策依赖预测区域但无法将决策信息反馈给CP。本文提出一种基于反馈的置信预测(Fb-CP)框架,针对缩减时间窗的轨迹优化任务,引入全时段联合风险约束。通过充分利用实际轨迹数据,构建基于CP的后验风险计算方法,将调整后的允许风险分配至未来时刻,动态更新预测区域。该机制使历史轨迹信息持续反馈至CP,实现预测区域的自适应修正,并理论上证明了在线性能的持续提升与覆盖率的严格保持,确保系统安全性。此外,提出一种面向决策的迭代风险分配算法,具备理论收敛性。方法还可扩展应对分布偏移问题。基准实验验证了其有效性与优越性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g., Trajectory Optimization (TO) in uncertain environments. However, existing methods predominantly employ a sequential scheme, where decisions rely unidirectionally on the prediction regions, and consequently the information from decision-making fails to be fed back to instruct CP. In this paper, we propose a novel Feedback-Based CP (Fb-CP) framework for shrinking-horizon TO with a joint risk constraint over the entire mission time. Specifically, a CP-based posterior risk calculation method is developed by fully leveraging the realized trajectories to adjust the posterior allowable risk, which is then allocated to future times to update prediction regions. In this way, the information in the realized trajectories is continuously fed back to the CP, enabling attractive feedback-based adjustments of the prediction regions and a provable online improvement in trajectory performance. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that such adjustments consistently maintain the coverage guarantees of the prediction regions, thereby ensuring provable safety. Additionally, we develop a decision-focused iterative risk allocation algorithm with theoretical convergence analysis for allocating the posterior allowable risk which closely aligns with Fb-CP. Furthermore, we extend the proposed method to handle distribution shift. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are demonstrated through benchmark experiments.

轨迹优化置信预测在线学习风险控制

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