arXiv:2510.17211cs.AIcs.LG2025-10中稿 · ICLR被引 1

用动态超图神经微分方程建模糖尿病进展,捕捉复杂时间演化路径。

Temporally Detailed Hypergraph Neural ODEs for Disease Progression Modeling

  • 将疾病进展建模为时序精细的超图,通过神经微分方程学习连续动态。
  • 在两个真实临床数据集上优于多个基线模型,提升糖尿病及心血管病预测精度。
  • 适合研究慢性病演化、精准医疗与电子病历分析的学者与从业者。

疾病进展建模旨在基于纵向电子健康记录(EHRs)刻画并预测患者疾病并发症随时间的演变过程。对于2型糖尿病等疾病,准确的进展建模可提升患者亚表型识别,并支持及时有效的干预。然而,该问题具有挑战性,因需从不规则采样的临床事件中学习连续时间动态,同时应对患者异质性(如不同进展速率与路径)。现有机制与数据驱动方法或难以适应真实世界数据,或无法捕捉进展轨迹中的复杂连续动态。为此,我们提出时序精细超图神经常微分方程(TD-HNODE),将临床公认的疾病进展轨迹表示为时序精细超图,并通过神经常微分方程框架学习连续时间动态。TD-HNODE包含可学习的时序精细超图拉普拉斯矩阵,捕捉疾病并发症标记在内与跨进展轨迹间的依赖关系。在两个真实临床数据集上的实验表明,TD-HNODE在建模2型糖尿病及其相关心血管疾病进展方面显著优于多个基线模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Disease progression modeling aims to characterize and predict how a patient's disease complications worsen over time based on longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). For diseases such as type 2 diabetes, accurate progression modeling can enhance patient sub-phenotyping and inform effective and timely interventions. However, the problem is challenging due to the need to learn continuous-time progression dynamics from irregularly sampled clinical events amid patient heterogeneity (e.g., different progression rates and pathways). Existing mechanistic and data-driven methods either lack adaptability to learn from real-world data or fail to capture complex continuous-time dynamics on progression trajectories. To address these limitations, we propose Temporally Detailed Hypergraph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (TD-HNODE), which represents disease progression on clinically recognized trajectories as a temporally detailed hypergraph and learns the continuous-time progression dynamics via a neural ODE framework. TD-HNODE contains a learnable TD-Hypergraph Laplacian that captures the interdependency of disease complication markers within both intra- and inter-progression trajectories. Experiments on two real-world clinical datasets demonstrate that TD-HNODE outperforms multiple baselines in modeling the progression of type 2 diabetes and related cardiovascular diseases.

疾病建模神经ODE超图网络电子病历

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